Table 3.

Posterior median estimates and 95% credible intervals for parameters under data simulated under various scenarios.

Scenario	p	z	β	γ	γ G	k	AUC (Δ AUC)
μ = 0.01, d = 5	0.04 (0.02,0.06)	0.81 (0.65, 0.92)	0.005 (0.003, 0.009)	0.59 (0.47, 0.70)	0.078 (0.075, 0.081)	1.17 (0.79, 1.57)	0.868 (+0.168)
μ = 0.03, d=5	0.07 (0.05,0.10)	0.71 (0.56, 0.81)	0.010 (0.006, 0.016)	0.49 (0.40, 0.60)	0.041 (0.039, 0.042)	0.78 (0.620, 1.02)	0.98 (+0.275)
μ = 0.01, d = 25	0.06 (0.04,0.09)	0.83 (0.72, 0.91)	0.012 (0.008, 0.017)	0.62 (0.51, 0.72)	0.020 (0.019, 0.021)	0.97 (0.80, 1.22)	0.93 (+0.224)
μ = 0.03, d = 25	0.08 (0.06, 0.11)	0.81 (0.72, 0.88)	0.011 (0.007, 0.015)	0.25 (0.21, 0.29)	0.018 (0.017, 0.018)	0.66 (0.54, 0.82)	0.938 (+0.179)

The variable d is the expected number of SNPs between imported cases, while μ represents the per-generation mutation rate. Data were simulated under the parameters p = 0.05, β = 0.008 and z = 0.8.