Table 5.
Sensitivity Analysis Examining Different Scenarios of Chipatala cha pa Foni Program Operation
| SENSITIVITY INDEX | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MODEL | MODEL DESCRIPTION | TOTAL COST (2013 U.S. DOLLARS) | COST/CONTACT (2013 U.S. DOLLARS) | PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN COST/CONTACT | PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN TOTAL COST |
| Base cost | Total programmatic costs (primarily recurrent costs) | 287,357 | 4.33 | Reference | Reference |
| 1Aa | Hotline and T&R services operating at the highest observed capacity during the pilot; mobilization costs scaled proportionate to call volume | 323,182 | 2.86 | −34% | +13% |
| 1Bb | Hotline and T&R services operating at estimated full capacity; mobilization costs scaled proportionate to call volume | 576,983 | 2.23 | −48% | +100% |
| Reference: Model 1A | |||||
| 2Ac | Model 1A with a success rate of 100% for SMS and IVR messages | 321,080 | 2.84 | −0.7% | −0.7% |
| 3Ad | Model 1A with IVR and voice message components removed from T&R service | 321,671 | 4.17 | +46% | −0.5% |
| Reference: Model 1B | |||||
| 2Be | Model 1B with a success rate of 100% for SMS and IVR messages | 442,141 | 1.71 | −23% | −23% |
| 3Bd | Model 1B with IVR and voice message components removed from T&R service | 444,295 | 2.29 | +3% | −23% |
| 4f | Total program costs including all one-time and initial start-up costs | 604,911 | 9.10 | — | — |
All estimations used an exchange rate of 1 U.S. dollar = 334.5 Malawi kwacha (MWK), and mobilization costs were scaled at a rate of U.S. $3.039/call. Airtime and short message service (SMS) (text) message costs scaled at a rate of 30.75 MWK/min and U.S. $0.04/SMS sent.
Model based on highest observed call volume (939 calls/month), outgoing SMS (1,896 texts/month), and voice messages (258/month) and highest number of retrieved interactive voice response (IVR) messages (2,047/month) during the CCPF pilot. Costs incurred due to unsuccessful contact attempts (SMS and interactive voice response) were included in this model.
Model based on program operation at maximum capacity estimated at 2,160 hotline calls/month. All other contacts (SMS and voice) scaled proportionate to hotline call volume.
Similar to Model 2A. Excludes costs incurred from unsuccessful contact attempts (SMS and interactive voice response).
IVR and voice contacts excluded from the model.
Similar to Model 2B. Excludes costs incurred from unsuccessful contact attempts.
Includes both annuitized and nonannuitized one-time expenses. Social discount rate of 3% used.
T&R, tips and reminders.