Appendix Table 6.

One core item logistic model using expert consensus definition of improved vs. not

Core item	Area under the curve (AUC)	Sensitivity	Specificity	Brier Score
MRSS	0.9231	0.8392	0.8793	0.108
FVC% predicted	0.7906	0.6429	0.7586	0.184
Physician global	0.7743	0.7143	0.7241	0.197
Patient global	0.7448	0.7143	0.6207	0.204
HAQ-DI	0.7107	0.6429	0.6897	0.200
Pain	0.6857	0.6071	0.7586	0.218
Vitality	0.6856	0.4643	0.7414	0.225
VAS Breathing	0.6670	0.375	0.8103	0.219
GI VAS	0.6667	0.7857	0.4483	0.220
Patient skin interference last month	0.6601	0.5179	0.7586	0.226
Raynaud’s VAS	0.6190	0.4286	0.7241	0.238
Tendon friction rubs	0.5640	0.2321	0.8966	0.245
Digital ulcers VAS	0.5503	0.2857	0.7931	0.247
Body mass index	0.4946	0.1786	0.8276	0.250
Number of digital ulcers	0.4764	0.0179	0.931	0.249

HAQ-DI= health assessment questionnaire-disability index, MRSS= modified Rodnan skin score, FVC= Forced vital capacity, GI= gastrointestinal, VAS= visual analog scale