Table 1.

Characteristics of simulated modelled HIV programmatic scenarios at t0

	Median (90% range) over programmatic scenarios
HIV prevalence (age 15–65 years)	18% (14–22)
HIV incidence (per 100 person-years)	1·1 (0·7–1·6)
People starting ART
NNRTI resistance*	11% (5–22)
NNRTI resistance, excluding women who previously took antiretroviral drugs for prevention of mother-to-child transmission*	11% (4–22)
Any resistance, excluding women who previously took antiretroviral drugs for prevention of mother-to-child transmission and resistance*	12% (5–24)
New HIV infections
With transmitted drug resistance*	29% (12–49)
With NNRTI resistance*	26% (11–46)
HIV-positive people
Diagnosed	84% (80–86)
Started on ART	54% (42–62)
Currently on ART	46% (34–54)
People in need of ART, according to criteria for need of ART based on CD4 count <350 cells per μL
On ART	60% (47–68)
Ever started ART	73% (61–79)
People in need of ART, according to criteria for need of ART based on CD4 count <500 cells per μL
On ART	51% (39–60)
Ever started ART	63% (50–70)
Of people remaining on ART 1 year after starting ART, proportion with viral suppression†	69% (42–83)
Of people on ART, proportion with viral suppression†	76% (54–85)
Of people on ART, proportion now on second-line (bPI) regimen	8% (6–11)
Of all people with HIV, proportion with unsuppressed viral load‡	63% (53–81)
Of all people with unsuppressed viral load, proportion with resistance*§	23% (13–39)
People with fewer than three fully active drugs¶ when starting ART	14% (6–28)

Data are median proportion (90% range), unless otherwise stated. 5000 programmatic scenarios were generated. ART=antiretroviral treatment. bPI=ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor. NNRTI=non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor.

^*In the majority virus.

^†<500 copies per mL.

^‡Irrespective of whether diagnosed and in care. The number of adults alive in 2017 in the population is a median of 36 500 (90% range 35 500–37 500).

^§Whether diagnosed or not.

^¶A drug was not fully active if a resistance mutation to that drug was present in the minority or majority virus.