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. 2016 Apr 5;47:48. doi: 10.1186/s13567-016-0330-4

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© Pandit et al. 2016

Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of model predictions. ROC analysis (data are the reference) for the simulated probability of infection (PI) by C. burnetii after 1 year of inter-herd spread, for herds initially susceptible. (A) ROC curves for herd level analysis and neighbourhoods of 1, 2, 3, 4 km. The area under the curve (AUC) for each analysis is indicated in the legend. (B, C) Variation of the four indicators [Sensitivity (Se), Specificity (Sp), Accuracy (Acc), Youden Index (J)] used for building the three criteria [Se = Sp, max(Acc), max(J)] to optimise the cut-off of PI for the classification of herds as positive and negative. Calculations were performed at herd level and for a neighbourhood of 3 km. Model Sp was assumed to be identical over the different neighbourhoods and thus is shown as a single line.