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. 2016 Apr 5;47:48. doi: 10.1186/s13567-016-0330-4

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© Pandit et al. 2016

Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Infection dynamics of C. burnetii spread over one year in four simulated scenarios. Absence of inter-herd transmission (A, black, not visible as all the results are null), transmission by cattle trade only (B, blue), transmission by airborne dispersion (C, cyan), and presence of both transmission routes (D, red). The subdivision of scenario D based on the identified cause of herd infection is also represented (due to animal trade—orange; by airborne dispersion—green). (A) Distribution of the total number of predicted incident herds. (B) Dynamics of incidence (mean over 100 runs). Shaded regions for the subdivisions of scenario D represent 95% empirical confidence intervals. (C) Median proportion of intra-herd shedders and 80^th percentile (represented by shaded area) for all the scenarios. Inset figure shows the proportion of shedders (median and 80th percentile) for subdivisions of scenario D. Median and percentiles are calculated for runs where herds experienced infection (sample sizes are 16 733 for D, 13 814 for C and 3617 for B).