Table 1.

The parameters of model for HFMD outbreaks in Taiwan

Variable	Range	Outbreak 2000	Outbreak 2001	Outbreak 2005	Outbreak 2008	Outbreak 2008*
Parameter setting
N	—	22 092 387	22 276 672	22 689 112	22 958 360	22 958 360
μ1	—	3·8 × 10−5	3·2 × 10−5	2·5 × 10−5	2·37 × 10−5	2·37 × 10−5
μ	—	1·6 × 10−5	1·6 × 10−5	1·7 × 10−5	1·71 × 10−5	1·71 × 10−5
S	—	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%
E	—	1·4%	1·4%	1·4%	1·4%	1·4%
α	>0·167	0·35	0·35	0·35	0·35	γ(32·92, 0·01)
τa	0·028–0·125	0·08	0·08	0·08	0·08	γ(28·44, 0·0028125)
τs	0·028–0·125	0·08	0·08	0·08	0·08	γ(28·44, 0·0028125)
γ	—	1	1	1	1	1
ρ	0·47–0·94	0·7	0·7	0·7	0·7	β(0·6225, 0·26048)
θ	0·45–0·49	0·47	0·47	0·47	0·47	0·47
Infected number at beginning of outbreak	—	80	240	110	500	500

N, Number of total population; μ₁, birth rate; μ, death rate; S, proportion of susceptible; E, proportion of exposed to infectious subjects; α, transition rate from I to EV-I or AS-I; τ_a, rate of recovery from AS-I; τ_s, recovery rate from EV-I; γ, transition rate from EV; ρ, proportion of symptomatic cases; θ, ratio of HFMD; δ, proportion of severe cases; β, transmission coefficient.

^*The parameters for calculating R₀ with Markov Chain Monte Carlo.