Table 2.
The results of associated parameters for model fitting the outbreaks
| Variable | Range | Outbreak 2000 | Outbreak 2001 | Outbreak 2005 | Outbreak 2008 | Outbreak 2008* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β (per day) | — | 5·7 × 10−7 | 5·6 × 10−7 | 4·5 × 10−7 (<34 weeks) 1·2 × 10−6 (⩾34 weeks) |
5·3 × 10−7 (⩽25 weeks) 2 × 10−7 (25–33 weeks) 4 × 10−7 (⩾34 weeks) |
Inverse gamma (2·00, 5·85 × 10−7) |
| δ (per day) | 0–0·21 | 0·0018 | 0·0023 | 0 (<24 weeks) 6·75 × 10−4 (24–32 weeks) 1·35 × 10−4 (>32 weeks) |
0·0036 | 0·0036 |
| Proportion of cases reported | — | 25% | 22% | 22·5% | 22% | 22% |
| Predicted severe cases | — | 365·38 | 403·7 | 66·63 | 373·52 | |
| (reported cases) | (367) | (395) | (57) | (373) | — | |
| R0 | — | 1·22 | 1·21 | 1·59 | 1·18 | 1·37 |
| (95% CI 0·23–5·71) |
δ, Proportion of severe case; β, transmission coefficient; CI, confidence interval.
*
The results in sensitivity analysis after 15 000 times sampling simulation.