Table.
Predicted malaria cases and deaths in 2015, by country
| Guinea
|
Liberia
|
Sierra Leone
|
Total
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases, millions | Deaths | Cases, millions | Deaths | Cases, millions | Deaths | Cases, millions | Deaths | |
| Baseline | 5·3 (3·8–7·2) | 17 200 (10 300–28 400) | 1·6 (1·1–2·2) | 4300 (2700–6900) | 3·4 (2·3–4·6) | 9900 (5900–16 400) | 10·3 (8·1–12·7) | 31 800 (20 500–47 800) |
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| Additional | 0·3 (0·2–0·6) | 6200 (3100–11 700) | 0·2 (0·1–0·4) | 3000 (1600–6000) | 0·3 (0·1–0·6) | 5300 (2600–9900) | 0·9 (0·5–1·3) | 14 800 (8300–24 800) |
|
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| Total | 5·6 (3·9–7·8) | 23 600 (13 700–39 800) | 1·8 (1·2–2·5) | 7300 (4400–12 700) | 3·7 (2·5–5·1) | 15 200 (8700–26 100) | 11·5 (8·7–14·0) | 46 400 (28 900–73 000) |
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| 3-month MDA from January | ||||||||
| Dihydroartemisinin– piperaquine, 30% coverage | 5·3 (3·7–6·8) | 22 800 (13 400–34 100) | 1·7 (1·0–2·2) | 7000 (3800–10 800) | 3·5 (2·3–4·5) | 14 400 (9100–22 100) | 10·5 (7·4–13·1) | 44 100 (26 400–67 000) |
| Dihydroartemisinin– piperaquine, 50% coverage | 5·0 (3·3–6·2) | 21 200 (12 400–30 700) | 1·5 (1·0–2·0) | 6600 (3800–10 700) | 3·3 (2·1–4·3) | 13 500 (7400–20 200) | 9·9 (6·5–12·2) | 41 200 (23 700–61 500) |
| Dihydroartemisinin– piperaquine, 70% coverage | 4·4 (2·9–5·8) | 19 200 (11 600–28 100) | 1·3 (0·9–1·8) | 5500 (3200–8200) | 3·0 (1·9–4·0) | 12 800 (7000–19 500) | 8·7 (5·7–11·4) | 37 400 (22 000–55 600) |
| Artesunate–amodiaquine, 70% coverage | 4·5 (3·2–6·3) | 20 000 (12 100–28 400) | 1·4 (0·9–1·8) | 6000 (3300–8800) | 3·1 (2·0–4·1) | 13 300 (7200–19 700) | 8·9 (6·2–12·1) | 39 400 (22 700–56 500) |
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| 3-month MDA from July | ||||||||
| Dihydroartemisinin– piperaquine, 30% coverage | 4·4 (3·1–5·5) | 18 600 (10 800–28 800) | 1·6 (1·0–2·1) | 6500 (3500–9500) | 3·1 (2·0–4·0) | 12 700 (6900–21 100) | 9·2 (6·1–11·7) | 37 800 (21 300–58 500) |
| Dihydroartemisinin– piperaquine, 50% coverage | 3·5 (2·3–4·4) | 15 000 (9200–21 600) | 1·4 (0·9–1·8) | 5900 (3200–8600) | 2·7 (1·7–3·5) | 11 600 (6700–16 400) | 7·7 (5·0–9·6) | 32 400 (19 200–46 000) |
| Dihydroartemisinin– piperaquine, 70% coverage | 2·7 (1·9–3·4) | 11 400 (6700–17 900) | 1·2 (0·8–1·5) | 4900 (2700–7700) | 2·2 (1·5–2·9) | 9700 (5800–13 800) | 6·0 (4·2–7·9) | 26 100 (15 500–38 300) |
| Artesunate–amodiaquine, 70% coverage | 3·7 (2·5–5·2) | 16 400 (10 300–24 500) | 1·4 (0·9–1·8) | 6100 (3600–9300) | 2·9 (1·8–3·8) | 12 100 (6500–17 900) | 7·9 (5·2–10·6) | 34 500 (20 600–50 200) |
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| 6-month MDA from April | ||||||||
| Dihydroartemisinin– piperaquine, 30% coverage | 3·9 (2·7–5·0) | 16 400 (10 100–23 600) | 1·2 (0·8–1·6) | 5200 (3200–7400) | 2·5 (1·7–3·5) | 7300 (4400–10 400) | 7·6 (5·3–10·8) | 28 800 (17 900–40 700) |
| Dihydroartemisinin– piperaquine, 50% coverage | 2·8 (1·9–3·7) | 12 300 (7500–17 400) | 0·9 (0·6–1·2) | 3700 (2000–5800) | 1·8 (1·3–2·4) | 5300 (2800–8300) | 5·5 (3·8–7·1) | 21 300 (12 700–30 200) |
| Dihydroartemisinin– piperaquine, 70% coverage | 1·8 (1·3–2·4) | 7900 (4900–10 900) | 0·6 (0·4–0·8) | 2500 (1400–4000) | 1·3 (0·8–1·6) | 3600 (2100–5900) | 3·8 (2·8–4·9) | 14 000 (8700–20 200) |
| Artesunate–amodiaquine, 70% coverage | 3·0 (1·9–3·9) | 12 300 (7800–18 500) | 0·9 (0·5–1·2) | 3700 (2000–6000) | 1·9 (1·3–2·5) | 5400 (2900–8800) | 5·7 (3·7–7·4) | 21 200 (13 000–33 000) |
Data are n (95% credible interval). Baseline shows the estimates if health systems return to the level of functioning from before the Ebola epidemic. The additional cases are those that are predicted to occur if the health systems continue not to function throughout 2015 and no other remedial action is taken. The mass drug administration (MDA) scenarios show the total cases that are predicted without a return to a functioning health system.