Table 2. Predictive performance of risk models of importation and local transmission.
| ID | Predicted risk (variables) | AUCa(95% CIb) | Cut-off (%) | Sensitivity (95% CIb) | Specificity (95% CIb) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | Importation | 0.84 (0.69,1.00) | 20.6 | 77.5 (64.6, 90.4) | 85.9 (80.3, 91.5) |
| 1 | Local transmission (Aedes) | 0.80 (0.55, 1.00) | 16.2 | 64.3 (46.5, 82.0) | 85.1 (79.6, 90.6) |
| 2 | Local transmission (Chikungunya) | 0.89 (0.62, 1.00) | 18.6 | 71.4 (54.7, 88.2) | 93.2 (89.3, 97.1) |
| 3 | Local transmission (Dengue) | 0.84 (0.54, 1.00) | 17.4 | 67.9 (50.6, 85.2) | 91.9 (87.7, 96.1) |
| 4 | Local transmission (Aedes & Chikungunya) | 0.89 (0.61, 1.00) | 14.7 | 85.7 (72.8, 98.7) | 80.1 (74.0, 86.3) |
| 5 | Local transmission (Aedes & Dengue) | 0.86 (0.55, 1.00) | 13.7 | 82.1 (68.0, 96.3) | 74.5 (67.8, 81.3) |
| 6 | Local transmission (Chikungunya & Dengue) | 0.90 (0.60, 1.00) | 9.71 | 96.4 (89.6, 100.0) | 67.7 (60.5, 74.9) |
| 7 | Local transmission (Aedes & Chikungunya & Dengue) | 0.76 (0.38, 1.00) | 51.2 | 89.3 (77.8, 100.0) | 70.8 (63.8, 77.8) |
Notes.
a
AUC, area under the curve. The confidence intervals were calculated using Mann–Whitney method (Gengsheng & Hotilovac, 2008).
b
CI, confidence interval.