Fig 4. Estimation of the rate of introduction of rabid dogs in Bangui, λ _t (in rabid dogs imported to Bangui per week), the instantaneous effective reproduction number, R _t, and observed number of rabid dogs infected locally (red bar) or from outside the city (blue bar) and simulated number of rabid dogs from the model (black line: posterior median; grey area: 95% credible interval of the posterior distribution).

If R _t, is above 1, a local self-sustaining epidemic in dogs may occur in the city.