Table 3.

Projections of Avoidable Premature Heart Failure Deaths in Study Cohort Resulting from Increasing ICD Use in Low-Utilization HRRs

Quintile*	N	Actual ICD rate† (%)	Actual 2-year survival	Projection 1: Increasing ICD rate in lower 3 quintiles to national average ICD rate			Projection 2: Increasing ICD rate in lower 4 quintiles to highest quintile ICD rate
				Hypothetical ICD rate	Projected 2-year survival‡	Projected premature deaths averted in cohort	Hypothetical ICD rate	Projected 2-year survival‡	Projected premature deaths averted in cohort
High	34,234	10.6	66.0	10.6	66.0	–	10.6	66.0	–
4	32,118	8.1	64.6	8.1	64.6	–	10.6	65.2	202
3	38,502	6.1	64.8	7.0	65.0	92	10.6	65.9	443
2	29,945	4.7	64.3	7.0	64.9	179	10.6	65.8	452
Low	12,368	2.8	63.1	7.0	64.2	134	10.6	65.1	247
TOTAL	147,167	7.0	64.8	8.0	65.1	405	10.6	65.7	1,345

^*HRRs divided into quintiles by the percentage of ICD use in 2006–2007 among study cohort

^†Average ICD rate, 2006–2007

^‡Projected survival based on results of regression model

Abbreviations: ICD—implantable cardioverter-defibrillator; HRR—hospital referral region