. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Apr 1.

Published in final edited form as: Clim Change. 2016 Jan 9;135(3):555–568. doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1592-y

Table 4.

Alternative specifications of the effects of climate variability on migration (incident rate ratios, confidence intervals and significance tests).

Specification	Predictor	Effect of climate on migration
Specification	Predictor	Kenya		Uganda		Nigeria		Burkina Faso		Senegal
A. CRU anomalies, years 0–1	Precipitation	1.15		1.13		1.30	⁺	0.79		0.95
	Precipitation	[0.95,1.39]		[0.94,1.37]		[0.98,1.73]		[0.56,1.11]		[0.75,1.20]
	Temperature	0.58	^**	2.23	^**	0.58		0.29	^***	1.14
	Temperature	[0.40,0.83]		[1.23,4.01]		[0.18,1.82]		[0.18,0.46]		[0.52,2.51]
	Joint test	12.0	^**	7.3	^*	17.2	^***	28.2	^***	0.3

B. CRU raw values, years 0–1	Precipitation	1.06		1.07		1.14	^*	0.81		0.99
	Precipitation	[0.96,1.16]		[0.96,1.18]		[1.01,1.29]		[0.59,1.11]		[0.84,1.17]
	Temperature	0.93	^*	1.13	^**	0.83		0.74	^***	1.01
	Temperature	[0.86,1.00]		[1.04,1.23]		[0.57,1.21]		[0.63,0.85]		[0.85,1.20]
	Joint test	6.6	^*	7.9	^*	24.4	^***	16.9	^***	0.0

C. CRU raw values, years 0–1, plus timing of precipitation	Precipitation	1.16	^**	1.08		1.11		0.81		1.03
	Precipitation	[1.05,1.27]		[0.95,1.23]		[0.96,1.28]		[0.60,1.10]		[0.86,1.22]
	Temperature	0.91	^*	1.14	^**	0.79		0.74	^***	1.01
	Temperature	[0.84,0.99]		[1.04,1.25]		[0.52,1.19]		[0.64,0.85]		[0.85,1.20]
	Precip. timing	1.37	^**	1.08		0.63		0.92		0.57	⁺
	Precip. timing	[1.10,1.71]		[0.81,1.42]		[0.34,1.18]		[0.56,1.51]		[0.31,1.04]
	Joint test	13.5	^**	7.7	+	20.8	^***	19.9	^***	3.5

D. MERRA anomalies, years 0–1	Precipitation	0.98		1.12		1.21	^*	0.64	^**	0.91
	Precipitation	[0.88,1.09]		[0.77,1.63]		[1.03,1.40]		[0.48,0.84]		[0.71,1.16]
	Temperature	0.77	^**	1.22	⁺	0.40	^***	0.51	^***	1.00
	Temperature	[0.65,0.92]		[0.97,1.55]		[0.29,0.56]		[0.35,0.75]		[0.65,1.53]
	Joint test	12.3	^**	3.3		61.4	^***	16.1	^***	0.6

E. CRU anomalies, years 0–3	Precipitation	0.87		0.95		0.25	^***	0.50	⁺	1.35
	Precipitation	[0.63,1.19]		[0.50,1.80]		[0.11,0.54]		[0.23,1.09]		[0.68,2.65]
	Temperature	0.21	^***	0.90		0.06	^***	0.14	^***	1.75
	Temperature	[0.11,0.41]		[0.28,2.88]		[0.02,0.19]		[0.07,0.27]		[0.69,4.42]
	Joint test	21.5	^***	0.0		23.5	^***	37.1	^***	2.1

F. CRU anomalies, years 0–1, no time trend	Precipitation	1.14		1.28	^**	0.70	^***	0.60	⁺	1.10
	Precipitation	[0.93,1.39]		[1.09,1.51]		[0.58,0.84]		[0.35,1.03]		[0.92,1.32]
	Temperature	0.58	^**	1.15		0.44	^*	0.69		1.46
	Temperature	[0.41,0.82]		[0.70,1.87]		[0.21,0.93]		[0.44,1.09]		[0.83,2.58]
	Joint test	13.4	^**	11.0	^**	14.5	^***	3.4		2.6

Results from negative binomial regressions at the household-year level of the number of departed migrants. Controls, missing indicators and fixed effects are included but not shown. Joint tests are Wald tests of the climate variables.

⁺

p<0.10,

p<0.05,

^**

p<0.01,

^***

p<0.001