. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Apr 1.

Published in final edited form as: Clim Change. 2016 Jan 9;135(3):555–568. doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1592-y

Table 6.

The effects of climate variability on alternative measures of migration (incident rate ratios, confidence intervals and significance tests).

Outcome	Predictor	Effect of climate on migration
Outcome	Predictor	Kenya		Uganda		Nigeria		Burkina Faso		Senegal
H. Internal migrants	Precipitation	1.22	⁺	1.14		1.29	⁺	1.20		0.84
	Precipitation	[0.98,1.52]		[0.94,1.40]		[0.95,1.75]		[0.76,1.89]		[0.61,1.16]
	Temperature	0.55	^**	2.11	^*	0.54		0.49	^*	0.86
	Temperature	[0.36,0.85]		[1.11,3.98]		[0.16,1.83]		[0.26,0.94]		[0.37,2.02]
	Joint test	11.0	^**	5.5	⁺	16.5	^***	6.6	^*	1.5

I. International migrants	Precipitation	0.88		1.02		1.53	^***	0.55	^**	1.05
	Precipitation	[0.64,1.20]		[0.64,1.61]		[1.21,1.93]		[0.37,0.82]		[0.74,1.51]
	Temperature	0.76		2.24		1.17		0.19	^***	1.81
	Temperature	[0.32,1.78]		[0.44,11.42]		[0.54,2.53]		[0.11,0.32]		[0.67,4.91]
	Joint test	1.3		1.0		14.1	^***	38.4	^***	1.4

J. Male migrants	Precipitation	1.09		1.04		1.34		0.76		1.02
	Precipitation	[0.86,1.40]		[0.83,1.31]		[0.90,1.98]		[0.52,1.12]		[0.76,1.36]
	Temperature	0.53	^*	1.69		0.64		0.30	^***	1.14
	Temperature	[0.28,0.98]		[0.85,3.34]		[0.24,1.72]		[0.18,0.52]		[0.40,3.29]
	Joint test	4.2		2.3		9.9	^**	18.8	^***	0.1

K. Female migrants	Precipitation	1.25		1.26		1.29		0.96		0.74	⁺
	Precipitation	[0.85,1.85]		[0.95,1.66]		[0.94,1.76]		[0.37,2.52]		[0.54,1.02]
	Temperature	0.63		2.97	^*	0.56		0.20	^***	1.20
	Temperature	[0.30,1.29]		[1.24,7.14]		[0.10,3.22]		[0.10,0.40]		[0.38,3.73]
	Joint test	2.0		6.7	^*	19.3	^***	33.3	^***	5.8	⁺

L. Labor migrants	Precipitation	1.13		0.94		1.37	⁺	0.79		0.94
	Precipitation	[0.93,1.38]		[0.72,1.23]		[0.97,1.93]		[0.51,1.22]		[0.71,1.25]
	Temperature	0.50	^**	1.07		0.82		0.31	^***	1.12
	Temperature	[0.33,0.76]		[0.42,2.70]		[0.37,1.84]		[0.17,0.54]		[0.37,3.36]
	Joint test	11.0	^**	0.3		5.8	⁺	16.2	^***	0.2

M. Non-labor migrants	Precipitation	1.15		1.38	^*	1.29	⁺	0.78		0.97
	Precipitation	[0.81,1.63]		[1.03,1.85]		[0.98,1.71]		[0.52,1.19]		[0.64,1.46]
	Temperature	0.72		4.88	^***	0.46		0.24	^**	1.18
	Temperature	[0.38,1.36]		[2.41,9.88]		[0.12,1.80]		[0.09,0.67]		[0.47,2.94]
	Joint test	1.5		19.4	^***	22.3	^***	7.5	^*	0.1

Results from negative binomial regressions at the household-year level of the number of departed migrants. Controls, missing indicators and fixed effects are included but not shown. Joint tests are Wald tests of the climate variables.

⁺

p<0.10,

p<0.05,

^**

p<0.01,

^***

p<0.001