Figure 2. Conditional probability in experimental and reshuffled time series.

(black circles) is the distribution of for s₀ = 300 μV and t₀ = 300 ms, evaluated on 10⁵ realizations of the reshuffled avalanche series. The distribution is well fitted by a Gaussian (red curve) with mean value Q(s_i < s₀, Δt_i < t₀) = 0.5536 (black vertical line) and standard deviation σ(s_i < s₀, Δt_i < t₀) = 0.0094. The evaluation of P(s_i < s₀|Δt_i < t₀) in the real avalanche series for the same s₀ and t₀ provides the value 0.8269 (blue vertical line). It follows , indicating that significant correlations exist between the avalanche size and the following quiet time.