Table 3.

Sensitivity Analysis Results

LA-PrEP Strategy	Lifetime Risk of HIV Infection,a Infections/1000 High-Risk Women	5-y Averted HIV-Related Deaths, No./1000 High-risk Womenb		Discounted Per-Person Lifetime Cost,c $	PrEP Cost, % of Total Cost	Discounted PrEP Cost per Lifetime HIV Infection Averted,c $	ICER, $/Life-Year Saved
		Versus No PrEP	Versus Std-PrEP				Versus No PrEP	Versus Std-PrEP
Base cased	510	16	1	5300	28	12 400	Cost savinge	150
Effectiveness, %
65	530	15	0	5660	26	14 200	Cost saving	18 560
85	490	17	2	4920	31	10 800	Cost saving	Cost saving
95	470	18	3	4530	34	9600	Cost saving	Cost saving
HIV infection annual incidence until age 25 y, %
2.5	490	8	0	4830	32	21 800	680	4790
9.0	550	27	2	6000	24	8200	Cost saving	Cost saving
PrEP through age
19 y	600	8	0	5640	8	15 800	Cost saving	590
35 y	430	16	1	5840	48	14 100	60	1770
45 y	340	16	1	6240	60	13 000	280	2 490
Program cost, % of basecase
50 ($9/mo)	510	16	1	4540	16	6200	Cost saving	Cost saving
150 ($28/mo)	510	16	1	6040	37	18 400	280	7870
Scenario
Optimistic (85% efficacy, 50% cost, 9.0% incidence)	520	29	4	4620	16	3600	Cost saving	Cost saving
Pessimistic (65% efficacy, 150% cost, 2.5% incidence)	500	8	0	5780	39	37 500	2420	165 360

Abbreviations: HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; LA-PrEP, long-acting preexposure prophylaxis; PrEP, preexposure prophylaxis; Std-PrEP, standard preexposure prophylaxis.

^a Lifetime HIV infection risk was projected from the cohort starting mean age of 18 years.

^b Averted deaths were rounded down to the nearest integer.

^c Costs were measured in 2014 $.

^d The base case used LA-PrEP with an effectiveness of 75% in a population of women with 5.0% annual HIV infection incidence at a monthly cost of $18.60. PrEP was provided through age 25 y.

^e PrEP was more effective and less expensive than the comparator strategy.