. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2016 Apr 21.

Published in final edited form as: Stat Med. 2015 Mar 5;34(16):2456–2475. doi: 10.1002/sim.6460

Table 5.

Comparison of multistate models to 3-state model on the basis of common data. D_RAIC includes complexity terms assessing statistical risk while likelihood terms only consider fit to x′. P_RAIC and P_RLCV are one-sided coverage of largest tracking interval for difference in EKL on common data not including 0. Complexity is D_RAIC trace term while fit is $\frac{1}{n} (l ({\hat{γ}}_{n} | x^{″}) - l ({\hat{θ}}_{n} | x^{″}))$ with log-likelihood of 3-state model $l ({\hat{γ}}_{n} | x^{″}) = - 1975.7$ and n = 597. *These coverage probabilities were > 99.9999%

Model	4-state	5-state	Husted	6-state
$l ({\hat{θ}}_{n} \| x^{″})$	−1943.0	−1929.2	−1916.4	−1884.1
Complexity	−0.003	−0.002	−0.001	−0.001
Fit	−0.055	−0.078	−0.099	−0.153
D_RAIC (95% ti)	−0.057 (−0.073, −0.041)	−0.080 (−0.101, −0.058)	−0.100 (−0.130, −0.071)	−0.154 (−0.186, −0.123)
P_RAIC	100.00%	100.00 %	100.00%	100.00%*
D_RLCV (95% ti)	−0.056 (−0.072, −0.040)	−0.080 (−0.102, −0.058)	−0.100 (−0.129, −0.071)	−0.156 (−0.187, −0.124)
P_RLCV	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%