Table 1. Frequencies of models from BIC guided search of Polity Score.

	State of Polity Score		Change in Polity Score
Model	Preferred	2nd best	Preferred	2nd best
Ladj, SoLaff, Sadj, Sprox	1		1	7
Ladj, SoLaff, Sadj		6	1	2
Ladj, SoLaff, Sprox			4	3
Ladj, Sadj, Sprox	7	6
SoLaff, Sadj, Sprox	2	2		2
Ladj, SoLaff	1	2	10	2
Ladj, Sadj		1	1	1
SoLaff, Sadj	6	10	2	3
Sadj, Sprox			1	2
Ladj, Sprox	18	9		1
SoLaff, Sprox	5	11	3	5
Ladj		2	4
SoLaff	18	9	7	8
Sadj				5
Sprox			7	11
null			16	5
frequency SoLaff included	33	40	28	32
frequency Ladj included	27	26	21	16
frequency Sprox included	33	28	16	31
frequency Sadj included	16	25	6	22
	Overall		Overall
frequency SoLaff included	73		60
frequency Ladj included	53		37
frequency Sprox included	61		47
frequency Sadj included	41		28

L_adj, = Language Adjacency (mutually intelligible), SoL_aff = Socio-linguistic affiliation, S_adj = Spatial Adjacency (shared border), S_prox = Spatial Proximity. For polity state 58 models were fitted while for polity change 57 models were fitted.