Table 6.
Estimated Events Reduced for CHD, Stroke, and HF From a Hypothetical Intervention That Achieves a 5%, 10%, or 20% Reduction of Unaware, Untreated, or Uncontrolled BP Above JNC 8 Goals, by Race (N=15 744), 1987–2011, ARIC Study
| Event Type | BP Category | Events Reduceda Per 100 000 PYs (95% CI) by Interventions Achieving Reductions in BP Above Goal | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% Proportional Reduction | 10% Proportional Reduction | 20% Proportional Reduction | |||||
| African American | White | African American | White | African American | White | ||
| Hypothetical intervention–reduce unaware BP (above JNC 8 treatment threshold) | |||||||
| CHD | BP above JNC 8 goal | 1.55 (0.66–2.58) | 1.05 (0.40–1.78) | 3.10 (1.31–5.15) | 2.09 (0.81–3.57) | 6.21 (2.63–10.31) | 4.19 (1.62–7.13) |
| Stroke | BP above JNC 8 goal | 1.48 (0.73–2.37) | 0.73 (0.32–1.27) | 2.95 (1.46–4.75) | 1.47 (0.64–2.55) | 5.95 (2.92–9.50) | 2.93 (1.27–5.09) |
| HF | BP above JNC 8 goal | 2.30 (1.25–3.68) | 1.89 (0.94–3.25) | 4.61 (2.50–7.36) | 3.77 (1.88–6.51) | 9.21 (5.00–14.72) | 7.54 (3.76–13.01) |
| Hypothetical intervention–reduce untreated BP (above JNC 8 treatment threshold) | |||||||
| CHD | BP above JNC 8 goal | 1.26 (0.55–2.13) | 0.41 (0.13–0.74) | 2.52 (1.10–4.25) | 0.81 (0.27–1.48) | 5.04 (2.19–8.51) | 1.63 (0.53–2.97) |
| Stroke | BP above JNC 8 goal | 1.27 (0.49–2.26) | 0.29 (0.10–0.56) | 2.53 (0.98–4.53) | 0.57 (0.20–1.12) | 5.07 (1.95–9.06) | 1.14 (0.40–2.24) |
| HF | BP above JNC 8 goal | 1.78 (0.89–2.87) | 0.81 (0.32–1.52) | 3.55 (1.79–5.73) | 1.63 (0.65–3.04) | 7.10 (3.57–11.47) | 3.26 (1.29–6.08) |
| Hypothetical intervention–reduce uncontrolled BP (above JNC 8 treatment threshold) | |||||||
| CHD | BP above JNC 8 goal | 3.61 (1.54–5.79) | 1.44 (0.55–2.57) | 7.22 (3.08–11.57) | 2.87 (1.11–5.15) | 14.44 (6.17–23.14) | 5.75 (2.22–10.30) |
| Stroke | BP above JNC 8 goal | 3.52 (1.72–5.65) | 0.98 (0.33–2.02) | 7.04 (3.44–11.31) | 1.95 (0.65–4.05) | 14.08 (6.87–22.62) | 3.90 (1.30–8.10) |
| HF | BP above JNC 8 goal | 5.51 (3.09–8.76) | 2.22 (1.25–3.40) | 11.01 (6.17–17.52) | 4.44 (2.49–6.81) | 22.02 (12.34–35.04) | 8.87 (4.99–13.62) |
ARIC indicates Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study; BP, blood pressure; CHD, coronary heart disease; HF, heart failure; IRD, incidence rate differences; JNC 8, the 2014 Guidelines for the Management of High Blood Pressure from the Eighth Joint National Committee.
Events reduced calculated as IRDijk×(proportionl−proportionm) where i, j, and k index race, gender, and 5‐year age categories, proportion is the race‐specific proportion of BP above goal36 pre‐ (l subscript) and post (m subscript)‐ intervention, per 100 000 person years.