Table 1. A priori model set.
Hypothesis | Model # | Covariates |
---|---|---|
Null | 1 | ~ 1 |
Productivity | 2 | ~ Weighted NDVIa mean |
3 | ~ Weighted NDVI mean + regionb | |
Region | 4 | ~ Region |
Anthropogenic Effects | 5 | ~ Primary road densityc |
6 | ~ Primary road density + region | |
7 | ~ Secondary road densityd | |
8 | ~ Secondary road density + region | |
Habitat | 9 | ~ percent NLCDe |
10 | ~ percent NLCD + region | |
Productivity & Anthropogenic Effects | 11 | ~ Weighted NDVI mean + primary road density |
12 | ~ Weighted NDVI mean + primary road density + region | |
13 | ~ Weighted NDVI mean + secondary road density | |
14 | ~ Weighted NDVI mean + secondary road density + region | |
Productivity & Habitat | 15 | ~ Weighted NDVI mean + percent NLCD |
16 | ~ Weighted NDVI mean + percent NLCD + region | |
Anthropogenic Effects & Habitat | 17 | ~ Primary road density + percent NLCD |
18 | ~ Primary road density + percent NLCD + region | |
19 | ~ Secondary road density + percent NLCD | |
20 | ~ Secondary road density + percent NLCD + region | |
Productivity & Anthropogenic Effects & Habitat | 21 | ~ Weighted NDVI mean + primary road density + secondary road density + percent NLCD |
Global | 22 | ~ Weighted NDVI mean + primary road density + secondary road density + percent NLCD + region |
The model set contained 22 additive models with 17 independent variables used in an analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to predict the spatial occurrence of black bear incident reports, Michigan, USA, 2003–2011.
a NDVI = Normalized Difference Vegetation Index.
b Region = regional location in which a given bear incident report occurred (Upper Peninsula or Lower Peninsula).
c Primary road density = interstates, highways, and residential roads.
d Secondary road density = roads that may be paved but have little traffic (e.g., park roads, two-track roads).
e; NLCD = National Land Cover Database; percent NLCD—percent area for each land cover (e.g., developed open space, deciduous forest, cultivated crops, etc.).