Table 4.
Predictive value of clinical and immunologic factors for SCC development during study
| Variable | Univariate | Multivariate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | P Value | HR (95% CI) | P Value | |
| Age at enrolment (years) | 1.07 (1.03 to 1.11) | <0.001 | 1.03 (0.99 to 1.08) | 0.14 |
| Male gender | 1.77 (0.72 to 4.37) | 0.22 | ||
| Age at first transplant (years) | 1.04 (1.01 to 1.07) | 0.01 | ||
| Received dialysis pre-transplant | 2.47 (0.75 to 8.18) | 0.14 | ||
| Duration of dialysis pre-transplant (months) | 1.01 (1.00 to 1.01) | 0.04 | 1.00 (1.00 to 1.01) | 0.35 |
| Total immunosuppression duration (months) | 1.00 (1.00 to 1.00) | 0.91 | ||
| Number of HLA mismatches | 1.06 (0.83 to 1.37) | 0.64 | ||
| Estimated GFR at enrolment (ml/min per 1.73 m2) | 1.00 (0.98 to 1.02) | 0.71 | ||
| Cytomegalovirus seropositivity | 2.58 (0.98 to 6.78) | 0.06 | ||
| Positive smoking history | 1.21 (0.57 to 2.59) | 0.62 | ||
| History of previous SCC | 3.66 (1.55 to 8.64) | 0.01 | 3.25 (1.29 to 8.17) | 0.01 |
| History of previous non-NMSC malignancy | 1.04 (0.36 to 2.99) | 0.94 | ||
| Malignancy in first-degree relative | 0.57 (0.26 to 1.26) | 0.17 | ||
| History of chronic UV exposure | 1.93 (0.85 to 4.39) | 0.12 | ||
| Increasing Fitzpatrick skin type (no units) | 0.81 (0.51 to 1.28) | 0.36 | ||
| Non brown eye color | 1.06 (0.47 to 2.40) | 0.89 | ||
| Number of lymphocytes (cell/µl) | 1.00 (0.999 to 1.001) | 0.88 | ||
| Number of CD3+ cells (cell/µl) | 1.00 (0.999 to 1.001) | 0.94 | ||
| Number of CD4+ T cells (cell/µl) | 1.00 (0.998 to 1.000) | 0.20 | ||
| Number of CD8+ T cells (cell/µl) | 1.00 (0.999 to 1.002) | 0.40 | ||
| Number of Treg (cell/µl) | 0.97 (0.924 to 1.007) | 0.10 | ||
| Number of γδ T cells (cell/µl) | 1.01 (1.001 to 1.009) | 0.01 | 1.01 (1.001 to 1.010) | 0.02 |
| Number of CD57+ CD8+ T cells (cell/µl) | 1.00 (1.000 to 1.002) | 0.14 | ||
| >50% CD57+ CD8+ T cells | 4.60 (1.745 to 12.11) | 0.01 | 2.85 (1.02 to 7.95) | 0.05 |
Variables are expressed as a HR, per unit increase for continuous variables (units in parentheses where appropriate). For multivariate modeling >50% CD57+ CD8+ T cells was adjusted for variables significant on univariate analysis (all adjusted values are given). Age at enrolment and age at first transplant correlated strongly (r=0.74) and so only age at enrolment was utilized in the multivariate analysis, as the stronger predictor.