. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2016 May 9.

Published in final edited form as: J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2004 May;36(1):613–621. doi: 10.1097/00126334-200405010-00010

Table 2.

Estimates of the potential impact of HAART on the annual risk of HIV-1 transmission. The table gives estimates of the annual risk of HIV-1 transmission as a function of plasma HIV-1 RNA load [27], the proportion of the present population falling into each plasma HIV-1 RNA load band, the weighted annual risk of HIV-1 transmission, the proportion of the population that will not receive HAART under present guidelines, and the weighted annual risk of HIV-1 transmission with the provision of HAART. The decrease in the annual risk of HIV-1 transmission from 0.171/person/yr without HAART to 0.151/person/year with HAART corresponds to a reduction of 11.9% (7.1% – 17.0%).

						Total (6)
Plasma HIV-1 RNA load (copies/ml)	< 399	400 – 3,499	3,500 – 9,999	10,000 – 49,999	>49,999	NA
Annual risk of HIV-1 transmission (/person/year)	0	0.04	0.12	0.14	0.23	NA
Percentage of HIV-1-positive population (%)	3.1 (1.1 – 6.5)	8.2 (4.7 – 12.9)	12.2 (8.0 – 17.7)	25.5 (19.6 – 32.2)	51.1 (43.8 – 58.2)	100
Weighted annual risk of HIV-1 transmission without HAART (/person/year)	0	0.00327 (0.00188 – 0.00516)	0.0147 (0.00960 – 0.0212)	0.0357 (0.0274 – 0.0451)	0.118 (0.101 – 0.134)	0.171 (0.1591 – 0.183)
Percentage of HIV-1-positive population with CD4+ counts > 200 cells/mm³	3.1 (1.1 – 6.5)	8.2 (4.7 – 12.9)	12.2 (8.0 – 17.7)	23.5 (17.5 – 30.0)	43.4 (36.3 – 50.6)	90.3 (85.3 – 94.1)
Weighted annual risk of HIV-1 transmission with HAART (/person/year)	0	0.00327 (0.00188 – 0.00516)	0.0147 (0.00960 – 0.0212)	0.0329 (0.0245 – 0.0420)	0.0997 (0.0835 – 0.116)	0.151 (0.136 – 0.165)