Table 1. Model comparison of the logistic binomial regressions fitted to the DF outbreaks over the period 1991–2013.

	Univariate			Multivariate
Covariates	FG-N-RAINa	EPO-JA-SSTb	AH-N-SLPc	EPO-JA-SSTb	+ AH-N-SLPc
Unit	mm	°C	hPa	°C	hPa
AIC	30	30	31	27
AUC	0.77	0.75	0.76	0.88
Coeff.	-0.03	2.61	0.29	2.78	0.40
Std. Err.	0.02	1.42	0.15	1.33	0.20
p-value	0.048	0.073	0.061	0.036	0.045

AIC, Akaike information criterion; AUC, area under the curve; Coeff., coefficient; Std. Err., standard error.

^aFG-N-RAIN, October–November mean rainfall;

^bEPO-JA-SST, July–August mean Equatorial Pacific Ocean (2° N-20°S, 135°W-90°W) sea surface temperature;

^cAH-N-SLP, November Azores High (45°N-35°N, 40°W-20°W) sea-level pressure.