(A) unadjusted Kaplan-Meier cumulative event curve for incident heart failure in all participants, (B) locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOWESS) comparing incident heart failure occurring at any point during follow-up relative to the baseline predicted risk of heart failure (predicted by the ARIC heart failure score), (C) unadjusted Kaplan-Meier cumulative event curve for incident heart failure in participants at LOW risk for heart failure (predicted by an ARIC heart failure score ≤ 11), (D) and unadjusted Kaplan-Meier cumulative event curve for incident heart failure in participants at HIGH risk for heart failure (predicted by an ARIC heart failure score >11)
ARIC = Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities.