Table 2. Calculation of most probable setting of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus acquisition for a patient with onset date April 2, 2014, King Fahd General Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia*.
| Date | Setting where treated | Incubation period, d | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24 | ED | 9† | 0.0578‡ |
| Mar 25 | ED | 8 | 0.0396§ |
| Mar 25 | Inpatient | 8 | 0.0396§ |
| Mar 26 | Dialysis | 7 | 0.0530 |
| Mar 26 | Inpatient | 7 | 0.0530 |
| Mar 27 | Inpatient | 6 | 0.1358 |
| Mar 28 | Dialysis | 5 | 0.0800 |
| Mar 29 | Inpatient | 5 | 0.0800 |
| Mar 29 | Dialysis | 4 | 0.0803 |
| Mar 29 | Inpatient | 4 | 0.0803 |
| Mar 30 | Inpatient | 3 | 0.1141 |
*Data are from patient 5 (Figure 1). The total probability is 0.50 for inpatient, 0.21 for the dialysis unit, and 0.10 for ED, so acquisition most probably occurred in the inpatient areas. ED, emergency department. †Represents the incubation period if date of disease acquisition was March 24 and disease onset was April 2. ‡Represents the probability of an incubation period of 9 days (Table 1). §Patient was treated in 2 settings on March 25, so probability is half of the probability for each setting.