Table 2.
Bayesian Space-Time Models of Relationship between Medical Marijuana Dispensaries and Crime (n = 7,992)
| Model 1: Violent Crime | Model 2: Property Crime | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable description | Relative Rate | 95% Credible Interval | Relative Rate | 95% Credible Interval |
| Intercept | 0.3160 | (0.0907, 0.8314)* | 2.3854 | (0.7048, 7.8877) |
| Medical Marijuana Dispensaries / sq. mile | 1.0061 | (0.9997, 1.0124) | 0.9984 | (0.9940, 1.0027) |
| Adjacent Medical Marijuana Dispensaries / sq. mile | 1.0248 | (1.0097, 1.0402)* | 1.0169 | (1.0071, 1.0268)* |
| Bars & Pubs / sq. Mile | 1.0031 | (0.9949, 1.0112) | 1.0238 | (1.0160, 1.0324)* |
| Restaurants / sq. Mile | 1.0028 | (0.9993, 1.0061) | 1.0032 | (1.0000, 1.0065)* |
| Off-Prem. / sq. Mile | 1.0071 | (1.0017, 1.0124)* | 1.0067 | (1.0016, 1.0118)* |
| Population Density (1000s / sq. mile) | 0.9659 | (0.9546, 0.9769)* | 0.9579 | (0.9471, 0.9695)* |
| % One-Person Household | 1.0166 | (1.0066, 1.0273)* | 1.0102 | (1.0014, 1.0191)* |
| Male / Female Ratio (x 100) | 1.0042 | (1.0001, 1.0086)* | 1.0042 | (0.9992, 1.0087) |
| HH Income ($1000s in 2013) | 0.9925 | (0.9878, 0.9969)* | 0.9881 | (0.9838, 0.9926)* |
| % Families in poverty | 1.0060 | (0.9963, 1.0172)* | 1.0057 | (0.9971, 1.0144) |
| % Unemployment | 1.0008 | (0.9930, 1.0084) | 0.9892 | (0.9808, 0.9964)* |
| % owned housing | 0.9869 | (0.9808, 0.9935)* | 0.9916 | (0.9857, 0.9972)* |
| s% vacant housing | 1.0218 | (0.9966, 1.0461) | 1.0015 | (0.9763, 1.0258) |
| % Asian | 1.0016 | (0.9929, 1.0112) | 0.9923 | (0.9839, 1.0010) |
| % Black | 1.0065 | (0.9968, 1.0175) | 0.9941 | (0.9848, 1.0028) |
| % Hispanic | 1.0037 | (0.9969, 1.0116) | 0.9900 | (0.9845, 0.9959)* |
| % age 15-24 | 1.0646 | (1.0233, 1.1050)* | 1.0371 | (1.0082, 1.0708) |
| % Zoned Commercial | 1.0086 | (0.9989, 1.0182) | 1.0037 | (0.9948, 1.0132) |
| Any Highway Ramps | 1.4290 | (1.1204, 1.8098)* | 1.5509 | (1.2186, 2.0012)* |
| Linear time trend | 0.9975 | (0.9920, 1.0030) | 0.9989 | (0.9933, 1.0044) |
| SD (CAR random effect) | 0.2791 | (0.0469, 0.5532)* | 0.2617 | (0.0464, 0.5093)* |
| SD (non-spatial random eff.) | 0.5687 | (0.4975, 0.6392)* | 0.6547 | (0.5950, 0.7191)* |
| SD (month random effect) | 0.0641 | (0.0374, 0.1005)* | 0.0809 | (0.0587, 0.1160)* |
|
| ||||
| Moran Coefficient | 0.9442 | (0.9120, 0.9764)** | 0.9715 | (0.9393, 1.000)** |
*
Credible interval does not include 1;
**
To be compared with an expected value of 0.0000.