Table 2. Hazard ratios of endpoints during follow-up period in relation to CCA IMT progression between 1994–1995 survey and 1999–2000 survey.
| Range of quartiles (rate-of-change per year, mm) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 <−0.008 | Q2 −0.008 to <0.016 | Q3 0.016 to <0.036 | Q4 >=0.036 | p for trend | Per 1 SD increase | |
| Combined endpoint | ||||||
| No. of events/person-years | 40/4002 | 33 /4254 | 21/4291 | 40/4021 | ||
| Incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) | 10.0 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 9.9 | ||
| Hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) | ||||||
| Unadjusted model | 1.0 | 0.78 (0.49–1.24) | 0.50 (0.29–0.84) | 0.99 (0.64–1.53) | 0.60 | 0.92 (0.77–1.09) |
| Model 1 | 1.0 | 0.91(0.57–1.44) | 0.64(0.38–1.09) | 1.14(0.73–1.76) | 0.85 | 0.95(0.82–1.10) |
| Model 2 | 1.0 | 0.96 (0.61–1.53) | 0.69(0.41–1.18) | 0.99(0.63–1.55) | 0.70 | 0.91(0.80–1.04) |
| Model 3 | 1.0 | 1.16 (0.71–1.91) | 0.68 (0.38–1.22) | 1.09 (0.68–1.75) | 0.93 | 0.95 (0.82–1.09) |
| Model 4 | 1.0 | 1.08 (0.68–1.72) | 0.77 (0.45–1.32) | 1.09 (0.70–1.71) | 0.95 | 0.95 (0.83–1.09) |
| Stroke | ||||||
| No. of events/person-years | 20/4092 | 19/4320 | 10/4376 | 22/4147 | ||
| Incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 5.3 | ||
| Hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) | ||||||
| Unadjusted model | 1.0 | 0.90 (0.48–1.69) | 0.47 (0.22–1.01) | 1.08 (0.59–1.98) | 0.85 | 0.92 (0.73–1.17) |
| Model 1 | 1.0 | 1.07(0.57–2.01) | 0.61(0.28–1.30) | 1.25(0.68–2.28) | 0.75 | 0.95(0.78–1.16) |
| Model 2 | 1.0 | 1.12(0.60–2.11) | 0.66(0.31–1.41) | 1.11(0.60–2.05) | 0.96 | 0.92(0.77–1.09) |
| Model 3 | 1.0 | 1.11 (0.57–2.18) | 0.67 (0.30–1.49) | 1.22 (0.65–2.31) | 0.79 | 0.95 (0.79–1.15) |
| Model 4 | 1.0 | 1.30 (0.69–2.48) | 0.73 (0.34–1.58) | 1.25 (0.67–2.32) | 0.76 | 0.97 (0.81–1.16) |
| Coronary events | ||||||
| No. of events/person-years | 21/4120 | 15/4348 | 12/4340 | 20/4130 | ||
| Incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) | 5.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 4.8 | ||
| Hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) | ||||||
| Unadjusted model | 1.0 | 0.68 (0.35–1.32) | 0.55 (0.27–1.12) | 0.95 (0.51–1.75) | 0.70 | 0.93 (0.73–1.19) |
| Model 1 | 1.0 | 0.77(0.39–1.49) | 0.71(0.35–1.44) | 1.08(0.58–1.99) | 0.91 | 0.96(0.78–1.19) |
| Model 2 | 1.0 | 0.81(0.42–1.58) | 0.76(0.37–1.56) | 0.93(0.50–1.73) | 0.75 | 0.92(0.77–1.11) |
| Model 3 | 1.0 | 0.94 (0.46–1.95) | 0.68 (0.30–1.52) | 0.97 (0.50–1.88) | 0.76 | 0.93 (0.76–1.13) |
| Model 4 | 1.0 | 0.92 (0.47–1.80) | 0.83 (0.40–1.72) | 1.00 (0.54–1.88) | 0.94 | 0.95 (0.78–1.15) |
Abbreviations: CCA IMT, common carotid artery intima-media thickness.
Models included the following variables: model 1, age (per unit) and sex; model 2, all model 1 variables plus mean value of common carotid intima-media thickness of 1994–1995 visit and 1999–2000 visit; model 3, all model 2 variables plus cardiovascular risk factors measured in 1994–1995 visit, including current smoking (yes or no), waist circumference (per unit), diabetes (yes or no), hypertension (yes or no), and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (per unit) (smoking and lipid parameters were not included when modeling risk of stroke); and model 4, all model 2 variables, smoking, plus mean value of cardiovascular risk factors (per unit) in 1994–1995 visit and 1999–2000 visit, including waist circumference, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure, and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (smoking was not included when modeling risk of stroke).