Table 3.
Model | Model variables * | Exposure coefficient estimate | SE for coefficient | OR | 95% CL for OR | Estimated bias and RMSE | Bootstrap SE † for coefficient | Bootstrap 95% CL ‡ for OR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 (basic) | Milk | 0.899 | 0.225 | 2.46 | 1.58, 3.82 |
|
0.236 | 1.59, 3.97 |
2a (ML full) |
|
0.406 | 0.257 | 1.50 | 0.91, 2.48 |
|
0.261 | 0.89, 2.46 |
2b (Firth) 42,43 |
|
0.383 | 0.252 | 1.47 | 0.91, 2.40 |
|
0.251 | 0.89, 2.37 |
3a (forwards stepwise, P < 0.20) |
|
0.390 | 0.244 | 1.48 | 0.91, 2.38 |
|
0.261 | 0.87, 2.43 |
3b (forwards stepwise, P < 0.05) |
|
0.383 | 0.243 | 1.47 | 0.91, 2.36 |
|
0.261 | 0.88, 2.44 |
3c (backward stepwise, P < 0.20) |
|
0.398 | 0.244 | 1.49 | 0.92, 2.40 |
|
0.261 | 0.88, 2.47 |
3d (backward stepwise, P < 0.05) |
|
0.414 | 0.244 | 1.51 | 0.94, 2.44 |
|
0.263 | 0.93, 2.61 |
4a (forwards AIC) |
|
0.381 | 0.243 | 1.46 | 0.91, 2.36 |
|
0.260 | 0.86, 2.39 |
4b (backward AIC) |
|
0.398 | 0.244 | 1.49 | 0.92, 2.40 |
|
0.262 | 0.88, 2.48 |
5a (forwards BIC) |
|
0.393 | 0.243 | 1.48 | 0.92, 2.39 |
|
0.264 | 0.88, 2.45 |
5b (backward BIC) |
|
0.393 | 0.243 | 1.48 | 0.92, 2.39 |
|
0.264 | 0.87, 2.45 |
6a (forwards CIE) |
|
0.400 | 0.242 | 1.49 | 0.93, 2.39 |
|
0.254 | 0.93, 2.56 |
6b (backward CIE) |
|
0.400 | 0.242 | 1.49 | 0.93, 2.39 |
|
0.254 | 0.92, 2.52 |
7a (forwards RMSE, larger model as referent) |
|
0.363 | 0.245 | 1.44 | 0.89, 2.32 |
|
0.257 | 0.86, 2.35 |
7b (backward RMSE, larger model as referent) |
|
0.350 | 0.243 | 1.42 | 0.88, 2.29 |
|
0.256 | 0.84, 2.28 |
8a (forwards RMSE, full model as referent) |
|
0.400 | 0.242 | 1.49 | 0.93, 2.39 |
|
0.261 | 0.88, 2.45 |
8b (backward RMSE, full model as referent) |
|
0.407 | 0.242 | 1.50 | 0.94, 2.42 |
|
0.263 | 0.89, 2.51 |
9a penalization by log-F(1,1) priors §45 |
|
0.396 | 0.253 | 1.49 | 0.90, 2.44 |
|
0.253 | 0.90, 2.42 |
9b penalization by log-F(2,2) priors ¶45 |
|
0.389 | 0.250 | 1.47 | 0.90, 2.41 |
|
0.246 | 0.90, 2.36 |
*All analyses are adjusted for age group and sex.
† Based on 4000 bootstrap samples.
‡ Bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) with 4000 resamples. 56
# Town, farm, cows, pigs, poultry, sheep/goats, horses, milking cows, cleaning barns, collecting eggs, firstborn, number of siblings, current smoker, lived in town or village as a child, parents were farmers, family kept cows, family kept pigs, family kept poultry, family kept sheep or goats, family kept horses.
§ Equivalent to F(1,1) prior for odds ratio; 95% prior limits are 1/648, 648.
¶ Equivalent to F(2,2) prior for odds ratio; 95% prior limits are 1/39, 39.