Table 4.
Results of multinomial logit models predicting international emigration for work based on men’s job characteristics in urban areas, 2005–2010
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | Model 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age (baseline 15 to 24 years) | ||||||
| 25 to 34 years | 0.084 (0.117) | 0.045 (0.123) | 0.041 (0.125) | 0.060 (0.124) | −0.155 (0.167) | −0.113 (0.191) |
| 35 to 44 years | −0.423** (0.133) | −0.419** (0.139) | −0.426** (0.141) | −0.387** (0.140) | −0.628** (0.208) | −0.784** (0.246) |
| 45 to 55 years | −1.045** (0.161) | −1.018** (0.168) | −1.049** (0.170) | −0.990** (0.170) | −1.189** (0.242) | −1.199** (0.320) |
| Education (baseline less than primary) | ||||||
| Complete primary | 0.232 (0.133) | 0.285* (0.135) | 0.283* (0.137) | 0.340* (0.138) | 0.238 (0.178) | 0.395 (0.220) |
| Complete middle school | 0.147 (0.139) | 0.217 (0.142) | 0.215 (0.144) | 0.324* (0.151) | 0.158 (0.19) | 0.237 (0.236) |
| Complete high school or technical degree | −0.281 (0.159) | −0.142 (0.163) | −0.135 (0.165) | 0.013 (0.171) | −0.261 (0.210) | −0.087 (0.262) |
| Complete college or more | −0.263 (0.191) | −0.365 (0.231) | −0.343 (0.232) | −0.039 (0.251) | −0.412 (0.325) | −0.366 (0.440) |
| Marital Status (baseline single) | ||||||
| Married | −0.038 (0.112) | 0.007 (0.119) | 0.005 (0.121) | 0.010 (0.120) | 0.297 (0.157) | 0.226 (0.186) |
| Cohabiting | −0.005 (0.152) | 0.061 (0.158) | 0.059 (0.161) | 0.054 (0.159) | 0.274 (0.222) | 0.312 (0.261) |
| Separated, divorced, or widowed | 0.025 (0.261) | 0.036 (0.276) | 0.051 (0.279) | 0.062 (0.279) | 0.695* (0.335) | 0.620 (0.355) |
| Born out of state | 0.223 (0.117) | 0.151 (0.126) | 0.164 (0.128) | 0.166 (0.128) | 0.195 (0.172) | 0.312 (0.209) |
| Employment | ||||||
| Informal sector | 0.628** (0.091) | 0.675** (0.096) | 0.591** (0.121) | 0.522** (0.122) | 0.578** (0.126) | 0.503** (0.147) |
| Individual wages | 0.001 (0.006) | 0.001 (0.006) | 0.001 (0.007) | −0.007 (0.012) | 0.002 (0.006) | |
| Firm size | −0.002 (0.002) | 0.000 (0.002) | ||||
| Years working at current job | −0.021* (0.010) | −0.031* (0.015) | ||||
| Union membership | −0.221 (0.259) | |||||
| Industry (baseline government) | ||||||
| Agriculture and cattle | 1.091** (0.340) | |||||
| Mining and electricity | 0.078 (0.694) | |||||
| Manufacturing | 0.555 (0.314) | |||||
| Construction | 0.858** (0.324) | |||||
| Commerce | 0.551 (0.320) | |||||
| Restaurants and hotels | 0.731* (0.346) | |||||
| Transportation and communication | 0.319 (0.333) | |||||
| Professional and financial services | 0.608 (0.359) | |||||
| Social services | −1.055* (0.459) | |||||
| Various services | 0.577 (0.339) | |||||
| Missing industry | 1.111 (0.585) | |||||
| Household Variables | ||||||
| Number of household members | 0.106** (0.026) | 0.114** (0.027) | 0.116** (0.027) | 0.115** (0.027) | 0.087* (0.037) | 0.114** (0.042) |
| Number of children in household | −0.076 (0.040) | −0.060 (0.042) | −0.061 (0.042) | −0.064 (0.042) | −0.026 (0.054) | −0.042 (0.062) |
| Number of informal workers | 0.027 (0.047) | 0.020 (0.050) | 0.013 (0.051) | 0.008 (0.051) | 0.087 (0.068) | −0.024 (0.082) |
| Informal family business | −0.392* (0.171) | −0.394* (0.176) | −0.393* (0.177) | −0.383* (0.177) | −0.807** (0.239) | −0.732* (0.287) |
| Contextual Variables | ||||||
| Mean wages | −0.079** (0.013) | −0.080** (0.013) | −0.080** (0.014) | −0.082** (0.014) | −0.084** (0.020) | −0.097** (0.023) |
| Unemployment rate | −0.036 (0.037) | −0.045 (0.038) | −0.047 (0.039) | −0.043 (0.038) | −0.021 (0.064) | 0.020 (0.073) |
| Percent informal workers | 0.004 (0.008) | 0.002 (0.008) | 0.003 (0.008) | 0.002 (0.008) | 0.009 (0.011) | 0.008 (0.012) |
| International migrant networks | 0.024** (0.008) | 0.026** (0.008) | 0.024** (0.008) | 0.025** (0.009) | 0.025* (0.012) | 0.028* (0.014) |
| Urbanization (baseline 15,000 to 99,999) | ||||||
| Population greater than 100,000 | −0.331** (0.128) | −0.339** (0.132) | −0.358** (0.134) | −0.327* (0.134) | −0.312 (0.176) | −0.256 (0.205) |
| Oversampled city | −0.246 (0.126) | −0.206 (0.129) | −0.222 (0.131) | −0.167 (0.130) | −0.312 (0.183) | −0.163 (0.212) |
| Region (baseline South) | ||||||
| Northwest | 0.384* (0.180) | 0.446* (0.184) | 0.452* (0.187) | 0.421* (0.187) | 0.052 (0.258) | 0.043 (0.294) |
| Northeast | 0.732** (0.190) | 0.793** (0.197) | 0.782** (0.201) | 0.751** (0.201) | 0.547* (0.264) | 0.312 (0.299) |
| Center | 0.572** (0.132) | 0.572** (0.137) | 0.580** (0.139) | 0.559** (0.138) | 0.521** (0.191) | 0.491* (0.213) |
| Center-west | 1.005** (0.139) | 1.022** (0.144) | 1.046** (0.147) | 1.023** (0.147) | 1.021** (0.194) | 0.882** (0.213) |
| Recession | −0.603** (0.117) | −0.685** (0.124) | −0.695** (0.126) | −0.700** (0.127) | −0.566* (0.231) | −0.595* (0.295) |
| Constant | −3.380** (0.326) | −3.46** (0.338) | −3.369** (0.352) | −4.024** (0.429) | −3.324** (0.476) | −3.140** (0.587) |
| Pseudo-R2 | .0701 | .0751 | .0759 | .0815 | .0809 | .0849 |
| n | 233327 | 216629 | 211070 | 211070 | 99088 | 73790 |
Notes: Models are tested using multinomial logit regressions, although only results for migration for work are reported to conserve space. Models 5 and 6 are tested using a limited sample because information regarding tenure and union membership is not available every quarter. Model 6 excludes self-employed individuals and employers for whom information about union membership is not available. Standard errors are adjusted for within-household clustering using a Huber/White estimator.
*
p < .05,
**
p < .01 (two-tailed tests)