Table 1.
Characteristics of the cohorts of risk prediction models
| Population | Model | Area | Follow-up | No. of subjects | No. of subjects for derivation | Validation (No. of subjects for validation) | Predicted outcomes (AUROC) |
| AUROC, the area under receiver operating curve; *, the AUROC for external validation; **, for the whole follow-up; ***, C-index rather than AUROC. | |||||||
| Prediction in CHB patients | GAG | Hong Kong, China | Mean: 76.8 months | 820 | 820 | Leave-one-out cross-validation | 5-year (0.88) and 10-year (0.89) |
| CU | Hong Kong, China | Median: 10 years | 1,005 | 1,005 | Internal validation (n=424) | 5-year (0.76) and 10-year (0.78) | |
| LSM | Hong Kong, China | Mean: 69 months | 1,555 | 1,035 | Internal validation (n=520) | 3-year (0.89) and 5-year (0.83) | |
| REACH-B | Taiwan, China | Median: 12 years | 3,548 | 3,548 | External validation (n=1,505) | 3-year (0.81*), 5-year (0.80*) and 10-year (0.77*) | |
| REACH-B (nomogram) | Taiwan, China | About 12 years | 3,653 | 2,435 | Internal validation (n=1,218) | 5-year (0.83) and 10-year (0.83) | |
| Lin | Taiwan, China | Median: 5.9 years | 1,822 | 1,822 | – | 6-year (0.91) | |
| Lee | Taiwan, China | Person-years: 53,551 | 3,340 | 2,227 | Internal validation (n=1,113) | 5-year (0.84), 10-year (0.86) and 15-year (0.87) | |
| Kim | Korea | Median: 30.7 months | 1,110 | 1,110 | Bootstrap | 3-year (0.80) | |
| Prediction in CHC patients | Chang | Taiwan, China | About 10 years | 1,879 | 1,252 | Internal validation (n=627) | 5-year and 10-year HCC risk (0.79**) |
| Chang (SVR) | Taiwan, China | Median: 41.3 months | 871 | 871 | – | 8-year (0.85) | |
| Prediction in cirrhosis patients | ADRESS | US | Median: 1.3 years | 34,932 | 17,124 | Internal validation (n=17,808), external validation (n=1,005) | 1-year (0.69***) |
| AFP-Based Algorithm | US | – | 11,721 | 5,586 | Internal validation (n=5,760) | 6-month (0.82) | |
| Prediction in general population | Michikawa | Japan | Mean: 12.6 months | 17,654 | 17,654 | Bootstrap | 10-year (0.94) |
| Wen | Taiwan, China | Mean: 8.5 years | 130,533 (HCV test), 298,051 (without HCV test) | 65,267 (HCV test), 149,026 (without HCV test) | Internal validation [n=65,266 (HCV test)], 149,025 (without HCV test)] | 5-year and 10-year [0.93 (HCV test), 0.92 (without HCV test)] | |
| Hung | Taiwan, China | Median: 18.8 years | 12,377 | 8,252 | Internal validation (n=4,125) | 3-year (0.87***), 5-year (0.87***) and 10-year (0.87***) | |