Table II. Forecasts of the year in which the current world record may be broken.
| Year in which the trend line of the fitted models reaches the current world record |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event | World record as of 31 December 2014 | Exponential time series analysis | Experience curve analysis | |
| Women | 100 m | 10.49 s | – | 2067 |
| 200 m | 21.34 s | 2032 | 2027 | |
| 400 m | 47.60 s | – | 2026 | |
| 800 m | 1:53.28 min | 2051 | 2013 | |
| 1500 m | 3:50.46 min | 2020 | 2013 | |
| 5000 m | 14:11.15 min | 2034 | 2024 | |
| 10,000 m | 29:31.78 min | – | >2100 | |
| Marathon | 2:15:25 h | –a | 2055 | |
| Men | 100 m | 9.58 s | 2057 | 2060 |
| 200 m | 19.19 s | 2039 | 2038 | |
| 400 m | 43.18 s | 2029 | 2029 | |
| 800 m | 1:40.91 min | 2020 | 2021 | |
| 1500 m | 3:26.00 min | 2026 | 2016 | |
| 5000 m | 12:37.35 min | 2020 | 2025 | |
| 10,000 m | 26:17.53 min | 2040a | 2020 | |
| Marathon | 2:02:57 h | –a | 2007 | |
aForecasts are based on performances established from 1945 onward.
–World record as of 2014 represents a higher running speed than the asymptotic parameter V s,∞ and may not be reached until the end of this century.