Table 6.

Intervention effects, costs, disability weights and other transition probabilities

Parameter	Model input§ (95 % CI)				Source
a. Intervention effects and costs
Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor
RR1	MI2	0.81(0.70 - 0.94)			[58]
	Stroke	0.65(0.52 - 0.82)
Cost3		14.10			[59]
Angiotensin receptor blocker
RR	MI	0.94 (0.85 - 1.03)			[60]
	Stroke	0.91(0.85 - 0.98)
Cost		64.83			[59]
Beta-blocker
RR	MI	0.90 (0.78 - 1.03)			[58]
	Stroke	0.83 (0.72 - 0.97)
Cost		6.82			[59]
Biguanide
RR	MI	0.67 (0.51 - 0.89)			[61]
	Stroke	0.80 (0.50 - 1.27)
Cost		21.15			[59]
Calcium channel blocker
RR	MI	0.85 (0.78 - 0.92)			[62]
	Stroke	0.66 (0.58 - 0.75)
Cost		13.19			[59]
Soluble Aspirin
RR	MI	0.77 (0.69 - 0.86)			[63]
	Stroke	0.95 (0.85 - 1.06)
Cost		14.79			[59]
Statin
RR	MI	0.86 (0.82 - 0.90)			[64]
	Stroke	0.90 (0.85 - 0.95)
Cost		15.92			[59]
Sulfonylureas
RR	MI	0.85 (0.74 - 0.97)			[61]
	Stroke	0.91 (0.73 - 1.13)
Cost		6.37			[59]
Thiazide diuretics
RR	MI	0.84 (0.75 - 0.95)			[58]
	Stroke	0.63 (0.57 - 0.71)
Cost		1.18			[59]
b. Costs
Cost of CVD4 prevention
Patient cost per OPD5 visit		15.1			[34]¶
Provider cost per OPD visit		7.15
Provider cost per lab test		4.07
Cost of CVD treatment
Patient cost per CVD treatment		194			[35]
	MI	Mild stroke	Mod.6 stroke	Sev.7 stroke
CVD risk - first year	310	271	512	570	Estimation
CVD risk - subsequent years	260	67	76	313
CVD risk with diabetes - first year	358	319	560	594
CVD risk with diabetes - subsequent years	308	115	124	361
c. Disability weights8
Acute MI		0.42 (0.28 - 0.57)			[26]
Mild stroke		0.02 (0.01 - 0.04)
Moderate stroke		0.08 (0.05 - 0.11)
Severe stroke		0.54 (0.36 - 0.71)
d. Other probabilities
In the event of a first ever stroke,
what is the probability of a:
mild stroke for a CVD risk		0.19			[65, 66]
moderate for a CVD risk		0.44			Extrapolation
severe for a CVD risk		0.27			and
mild stroke for a CVD risk with diabetes		0.15			assumptions
moderate for a CVD risk with diabetes		0.35
severe for a CVD risk with diabetes		0.50
In the event of a subsequent stroke,
what is the probability of:
…mild stroke		0.15
…moderate stroke		0.25
…severe stroke		0.60

¹RR - Relative risk with beta distribution fitted; ²MI - Myocardial in arction; ³Cost - All costs are in 2012 US$ and were fitted with a gamma distribution; ⁴CVD - Cardiovascular disease; ⁵OPD - Out-patient department; ⁶Mod. - Moderate; ⁷Sev. - Severe; ⁸Beta distribution was fitted disability weights and other probabilities; §All model parameters were varied at ± 15 % unless stated; ¶ provider cost per OPD visit is the average cost per visit for the four facilities costed, provider cost per lab test available from Table 5, Patient cost per OPD visit was derived from annual patient cost divided by average number of clinic visits [34].