Table B4.
BS | REL | RES | UNC | Deviance Binary | Deviance CSD | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subject 1 | 0.150 | (0.015) | 0.081 | (0.013) | 0.181 | (0.016) | 0.249 | (0.001) | 92.6 | (8.7) | 789.0 | (40.8) |
Subject 2 | 0.127 | (0.021) | 0.074 | (0.017) | 0.192 | (0.016) | 0.246 | (0.003) | 75.3 | (10.1) | 752.6 | (44.8) |
Subject 3 | 0.145 | (0.020) | 0.081 | (0.011) | 0.185 | (0.019) | 0.249 | (0.001) | 93.6 | (9.5) | 791.3 | (31.0) |
Subject 4 | 0.147 | (0.025) | 0.076 | (0.014) | 0.176 | (0.012) | 0.247 | (0.004) | 79.2 | (12.8) | 821.0 | (20.6) |
Fig. 8, A, E, and I | 0.135 | (0.019) | 0.095 | (0.015) | 0.207 | (0.015) | 0.247 | (0.004) | 79.3 | (8.0) | 764.6 | (37.4) |
Fig. 8, B, F, and J | 0.141 | (0.015) | 0.091 | (0.012) | 0.198 | (0.016) | 0.247 | (0.004) | 79.3 | (8.0) | 807.9 | (18.2) |
Fig. 8, C, G, and K | 0.152 | (0.015) | 0.093 | (0.013) | 0.188 | (0.017) | 0.247 | (0.004) | 79.3 | (8.0) | 830.7 | (22.7) |
Fig. 8, D, H, and L | 0.150 | (0.014) | 0.092 | (0.013) | 0.190 | (0.017) | 0.247 | (0.004) | 79.3 | (8.0) | 788.0 | (21.7) |
Brier Score (BS) and its 3 decomposed components: reliability (REL), resolution (RES), and uncertainty (UNC) are shown. For definitions and descriptions, see Brier 1950; Murphy 1973, 1972. We use the formulation commonly used today, which results by dividing Brier's original formulation by 2. Deviance for each of 2 fits are also shown. Mean (SD) across 6 trials for each subject and across 10,000 simulations for each simulated data set are provided.