Figure 4.

Predicting tuberculosis recurrence based on month-2 culture. (A) Observed recurrence rates for REMox, RIFAQUIN, and OFLOTUB, in relation to predicted rates based on data from studies published from 1973 to 1997. Axes in this figure indicate logit-transformed recurrence risk, with insets indicating corresponding numeric proportions. Red symbols indicate 4 month regimens; blue symbols indicate 6 month regimens. (B) Predicted recurrence for regimens of 4 and 6 months duration. Solid lines indicate updated predictions including the 3 recent trials; the dotted lines, the original predictions. Shading indicates the confidence interval for the revised predictions. The target month-2 positive rate for new 4-month regimens remained at 1%. Adapted from (Wallis et al., 2015), with permission.