Figure 3.

The burden of CRS. (a) Simulated deterministic burden of CRS over 30 years in the absence of vaccination for each region; and (b) Current routine vaccination coverage values per region (taking the lower conservative scale of routine vaccination coverage). (c) Simulated deterministic burden of CRS over 30 years following introduction of routine vaccination only (set at the conservative lower bound) divided by the simulated deterministic burden of CRS obtained in the absence of vaccination (shown in figure 3a)). Where the ratio exceeds 1, the introduction of vaccination has resulted in an increase in the burden of CRS. (d) Similarly, ratio of the simulated deterministic burden of CRS over 30 years following introduction of routine vaccination with a starting campaign reaching up to age 10, and follow-up campaigns to age 5 occurring every 4 years; all campaigns have a coverage of 60%. The full colour scale for ratios encompasses values more than 1.3 not observed here, but to enable comparison of outcomes with R₀ = 8 (electronic supplementary material, figure S6), and detection of areas where the ratio exceeds 1. See the electronic supplementary material, table S1 for the full set of results. (Online version in colour.)