Supplementary Fig. 2.

 Health and disease state transitions in the Markov model. The natural history of patients with nondysplastic Barrett’s esophagus (NDBE) was modeled for various health and disease states, each associated with a different set of costs and utilities. A single arrowhead indicates transition from one state to another in the direction of the arrowhead; double arrowheads indicate that transitions in both directions are allowed in the model. Half-circle arrowheads represent states in which a patient can remain indefinitely. The light blue area represents stages associated with endoscopic ablative therapy (EAT), if allowed in the model. Normal, no Barrett’s esophagus; LGD, low grade dysplasia; HGD, high grade dysplasia; EAC, esophageal adenocarcinoma; AEAC, advanced esophageal adenocarcinoma; S/P Surgery, status post surgery.