Table 3.

Exponential Regression Models Predicting Daily Transition Rates (Hazards) from Hospital to Home, from Hospital to Long‐Term Care (LTC), and from Home or LTC Back to Hospital (Readmission). To predict outcomes for individual patients, the baseline hazards are multiplied by hazard ratios corresponding to factors known at the time of operation, and those corresponding to the observed or simulated initial hospital length of stay (LOS) and duration of time in the current state

	Discharge from Hospital		Readmission to Hospital
	To Home	To LTC	From Home	From LTC
Number of subjects at risk	206,937	206,937	199,631	5,945
Baseline hazard (constant)	.909	.00554	.00178	.00131
Hazard ratios
Age 40–64 vs. <40	0.97**	1.00	0.88**	1.31
Age 65–79 vs. <40	0.93**	1.95**	0.83**	1.40
Age 80–99 vs. <40	0.83**	4.69**	0.95	1.19
Male vs. female	1.00	0.76**	0.92**	1.03
ASA 2 vs. 1	0.83**	0.66**	1.61**	3.22*
ASA 3 vs. 1	0.65**	0.95	2.26**	4.54*
ASA 4–5 vs. 1	0.46	1.33**	2.87**	4.35*
Obese	1.04**	1.11**	1.07**	1.02
Smoker or COPD	0.96**	1.14**	1.09**	1.20*
Other abnormal symptoms	0.81**	0.98	1.29**	1.10
Abnormal laboratory values	0.84**	1.10**	1.22**	1.21*
Pancreatectomy	0.30**	0.47**	1.32**	1.21
Colectomy	0.42**	0.60**	0.92**	1.02
Proctectomy	0.35**	0.72**	1.59**	1.58**
Ventral herniorraphy	1.05**	0.98	0.88**	0.87
Bariatric surgery	1.00	0.48**	0.76**	1.23
Hepatectomy	0.43**	0.41**	0.86*	0.84
Thyroidectomy	1.34**	0.97	0.86*	0.86
Esophagectomy	0.23**	0.56**	0.95	1.02
Initial LOS 2 vs. 1	0.57**	0.65**	1.78**	1.44
Initial LOS 3–4 vs. 1	0.58**	1.22**	2.60**	1.56**
Initial LOS 5–8 vs. 1	0.68**	2.66**	3.78**	2.29**
Initial LOS 9–16 vs. 1	0.41**	3.78**	4.73**	2.09**
Initial LOS 17–30 vs. 1	0.18**	3.91**	4.73**	2.09**
Days in current state 2 vs. 1			0.73**	0.69*
Days in current state 3–4 vs. 1			0.66**	0.61**
Days in current state 5–8 vs. 1			0.51**	0.50**
Days in current state 9–16 vs. 1			0.32**	0.37**
Days in current state 17–30 vs. 1			0.18**	0.17**

*p < .05, **p < .01.