Table 4.
Exponential Regression Models Predicting the Daily Probability of Death (Hazard) from the Initial Hospital, Home (without Readmission), Long‐Term Care (LTC), after Readmission from Home, and after Readmission from LTC. To predict mortality for individual patients, the baseline hazards are multiplied by hazard ratios corresponding to factors known at the time of operation, and those corresponding to the observed or simulated initial hospital length of stay (LOS) and duration of time in the current state
| Mortality from Other States | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial | After Discharge | After Readmission | |||
| Hospital | To Home | To LTC | From Home | From LTC | |
| Number of subjects at risk | 206,937 | 199,631 | 5,945 | 10,992 | 809 |
| Baseline hazard (constant) | .0000109 | .00000457 | .000173 | .000184 | .00559 |
| Hazard ratios | |||||
| Age 40–64 vs. <40 | 1.94* | 3.24 | 1.07 | 2.92 | 0.28 |
| Age 65–79 vs. <40 | 3.41** | 7.36** | 1.99 | 8.87** | 1.10 |
| Age 80–99 vs. <40 | 6.93** | 11.50** | 3.14 | 16.24** | 1.25 |
| Male vs. Female | 1.40** | 1.32 | 1.22 | 1.08 | 1.12 |
| ASA 2 vs. 1 | 2.71 | ||||
| ASA 3 vs. 1 | 6.49 | ||||
| ASA 3 vs. 1–2 | 2.82** | 2.11 | 1.86* | 1.06 | |
| ASA 4–5 vs. 1 | 15.26** | ||||
| ASA 4–5 vs. 1–2 | 8.23** | 3.84* | 2.83** | 1.68 | |
| Obese | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.08 | 0.52** | 0.56 |
| Smoker or COPD | 1.23* | 1.65* | 1.77* | 1.25 | 2.29* |
| Other abnormal symptoms | 1.60** | 1.59* | 1.88* | 2.29** | 0.59 |
| Abnormal laboratory values | 1.78** | 2.10** | 2.20* | 1.64* | 1.86 |
| Pancreatectomy | 1.04 | 1.31 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| Colectomy | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.65 | 1.06 | 1.93 |
| Proctectomy | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.48 | 0.59 | 0.44 |
| Ventral herniorraphy | 1.09 | 1.20 | <0.01 | 0.99 | 0.91 |
| Bariatric surgery | 0.77 | 1.04 | <0.01 | 0.35 | <0.01 |
| Hepatectomy | 1.24 | 1.46 | 1.88 | 1.33 | 1.65 |
| Thyroidectomy | 0.43 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 0.66 | <0.01 |
| Esophagectomy | 0.56 | 1.19 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 |
| Initial LOS 2 vs. 1 | 0.92 | 1.55 | <0.01 | 1.00 | 1.48 |
| Initial LOS 3–4 vs. 1 | 1.40 | 2.01* | 1.00 | 1.29 | 0.34 |
| Initial LOS 5–8 vs. 1 | 2.73** | 2.15** | 1.31 | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| Initial LOS 9–16 vs. 1 | 4.56** | 5.28** | 2.16 | 1.40 | 0.94 |
| Initial LOS 17–30 vs. 1 | 7.42** | 5.28** | 2.16 | 1.40 | 0.94 |
| Days in current state 2 vs. 1 | 0.36** | 0.21* | 0.25** | 0.44 | |
| Days in current state 3–4 vs. 1 | 0.27** | 0.28** | 0.20** | 0.45 | |
| Days in current state 5–8 vs. 1 | 0.17** | 0.21** | 0.19** | 0.51 | |
| Days in current state 9–16 vs. 1 | 0.12** | 0.14** | 0.14** | 0.17** | |
| Days in current state 17–30 vs. 1 | 0.08** | 0.14** | 0.09** | 0.10** | |
*p < .05, **p < .01.