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. 2004 Jul 24;329(7459):200–205. doi: 10.1136/bmj.38146.427188.55

Table 4.

Hazard ratios for cotinine group and risk of stroke over 20 years of follow up

Cotinine concentration (ng/ml)
0.7 0.8-1.4 1.5-2.7 2.8-14.0 Active smokers (1-9/day) Test for trend*
All men
Mean (SD) cotinine (ng/ml) 0.4 (0.2) 1.1 (0.2) 2.0 (0.4) 4.9 (2.1) 138.4 (149.3)
No of men 575 508 506 516 192
No of events 35 22 27 28 17
Person years 10 552 9162 9159 9112 3316
Stroke rate/1000 person years) 3.32 2.40 2.95 3.07 5.13
Hazard ratios (95% Cl):
Adjustment 1 1.00 0.76 (0.44 to 1.31) 0.83 (0.50 to 1.40) 0.87 (0.52 to 1.47) 1.48 (0.81 to 2.69) 0.73
Adjustment 2 1.00 0.81 (0.47 to 1.41) 0.87 (0.51 to 1.47) 0.78 (0.45 to 1.35) 1.39 (0.74 to 2.60) 0.91
Adjustment 3 1.00 0.83 (0.46 to 1.47) 0.94 (0.54 to 1.64) 0.77 (0.42 to 1.41) 1.45 (0.71 to 2.96) 0.99
Excluding former smokers
Mean (SD) cotinine (ng/ml) 0.4 (0.2) 1.1 (0.2) 2.0 (0.4) 5.0 (2.4) 138.4 (149.3)
No of men 308 249 197 191 192
No of events 14 10 6 11 17
Person years 5804 4610 3625 3458 3316
Stroke rate/person years) 2.41 2.17 1.66 3.18 5.13
Hazard ratios (95% Cl)
Adjustment 1 1.00 1.01 (0.43 to 2.35) 0.66 (0.25 to 1.78) 1.25 (0.54 to 2.89) 1.95 (0.90 to 4.22) 0.52
Adjustment 2 1.00 1.14 (0.48 to 2.71) 1.08 (0.38 to 3.02) 1.34 (0.54 to 3.31) 2.04 (0.91 to 4.57) 0.23
Adjustment 3 1.00 1.34 (0.53 to 3.40) 1.39 (0.48 to 4.04) 2.16 (0.80 to 5.80) 2.69 (1.07 to 6.75) 0.11
*

P values from tests for linear trend between log (cotinine) and stroke hazard across passive smoking groups.

For stroke hazard ratios: adjustment 1 stratified by town and adjusted for age; adjustment 2 additionally adjusted for systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, FEV1, height, and pre-existing CHD; adjustment 3 additionally adjusted for BMI, triglycerides, white cell count, diabetes, physical activity (none, occasional, light, moderate or more), alcohol intake (none/occasional, light/moderate, heavy), and social class (I, II, III non-manual, III manual, IV, V, and Armed Forces).

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