Table 2.
Mean, 5th percentile, and 95th percentile (95% confidence intervals) of lifetime attributable risks (per 100,000 women) of radiation-induced breast cancer and breast cancer death, by breast size, for different screening strategies.
| Screening Strategy | Small or average breasts
|
Large breasts
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (95% CI) | 5th percentile (95% CI) | 95th percentile (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | 5th percentile (95% CI) | 95th percentile (95% CI) | |
| Lifetime Attributable Risk of Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer (Per 100,000 Women) | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| Biennial screening | ||||||
| Ages 50–74 y | 24 (17, 35) | 13 (9, 18) | 43 (30, 61) | 57 (40, 82) | 28 (19, 40) | 108 (77, 154) |
| Ages 45–74 y | 40 (28, 57) | 21 (15, 30) | 72 (50, 102) | 95 (67, 135) | 46 (32, 65) | 181 (128, 259) |
| Ages 40–74 y | 61 (43, 87) | 33 (23, 46) | 107 (76, 152) | 144 (100, 205) | 71 (49, 101) | 266 (188, 384) |
| Hybrid strategy | ||||||
| A45–49 y, B50–74 y | 53 (37, 75) | 29 (20, 41) | 91 (64, 130) | 125 (87, 178) | 60 (43, 88) | 233 (162, 335) |
| A40–49 y, B50–74 y | 80 (56, 114) | 43 (31, 62) | 137 (96, 195) | 189 (132, 269) | 95 (65, 134) | 351 (244, 495) |
| Annual screening | ||||||
| Ages 50–74 y | 44 (31, 62) | 25 (17, 35) | 74 (52, 105) | 104 (73, 149) | 53 (37, 76) | 187 (131, 267) |
| Ages 45–74 y | 73 (51, 103) | 40 (28, 57) | 122 (85, 174) | 173 (121, 245) | 88 (62, 126) | 315 (221, 445) |
| Ages 40–74 y | 113 (79, 161) | 63 (44, 89) | 189 (133, 268) | 266 (186, 380) | 136 (95, 193) | 487 (339, 700) |
|
| ||||||
| Lifetime Attributable Risk of Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer Death (Per 100,000 Women) | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| Biennial screening | ||||||
| Ages 50–74 y | 4 (3, 6) | 2 (1, 3) | 7 (5, 10) | 10 (7, 14) | 5 (3, 7) | 18 (13, 26) |
| Ages 45–74 y | 7 (5, 10) | 4 (3, 5) | 12 (9, 17) | 16 (11, 23) | 8 (5, 11) | 31 (22, 44) |
| Ages 40–74 y | 11 (7, 15) | 6 (4, 8) | 19 (13, 26) | 25 (17, 35) | 12 (8, 17) | 46 (33, 67) |
| Hybrid strategy | ||||||
| A45–49 y, B50–74 y | 9 (6, 13) | 5 (3, 7) | 16 (11, 22) | 21 (15, 31) | 10 (7, 15) | 40 (28, 57) |
| A40–49 y, B50–74 y | 14 (10, 20) | 8 (5, 11) | 24 (17, 34) | 33 (23, 47) | 16 (11, 23) | 61 (42, 86) |
| Annual screening | ||||||
| Ages 50–74 y | 6 (4, 9) | 3 (2, 5) | 10 (7, 14) | 14 (10, 20) | 7 (5, 10) | 25 (18, 36) |
| Ages 45–74 y | 10 (7, 14) | 5 (4, 8) | 16 (11, 23) | 23 (16, 33) | 12 (8, 17) | 42 (29, 59) |
| Ages 40–74 y | 15 (10, 21) | 8 (6, 12) | 25 (17, 35) | 35 (24, 50) | 18 (12, 25) | 63 (44, 91) |
CI, confidence interval; y, years; A, annual screening at ages 40–50 or 45–50 and B, biennial screening at 50–74 years.