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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2016 Aug 16.
Published in final edited form as: Ann Intern Med. 2016 Jan 12;164(4):205–214. doi: 10.7326/M15-1241

Table 2.

Mean, 5th percentile, and 95th percentile (95% confidence intervals) of lifetime attributable risks (per 100,000 women) of radiation-induced breast cancer and breast cancer death, by breast size, for different screening strategies.

Screening Strategy Small or average breasts
Large breasts
Mean (95% CI) 5th percentile (95% CI) 95th percentile (95% CI) Mean (95% CI) 5th percentile (95% CI) 95th percentile (95% CI)
Lifetime Attributable Risk of Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer (Per 100,000 Women)

Biennial screening
 Ages 50–74 y 24 (17, 35) 13 (9, 18) 43 (30, 61) 57 (40, 82) 28 (19, 40) 108 (77, 154)
 Ages 45–74 y 40 (28, 57) 21 (15, 30) 72 (50, 102) 95 (67, 135) 46 (32, 65) 181 (128, 259)
 Ages 40–74 y 61 (43, 87) 33 (23, 46) 107 (76, 152) 144 (100, 205) 71 (49, 101) 266 (188, 384)
Hybrid strategy
 A45–49 y, B50–74 y 53 (37, 75) 29 (20, 41) 91 (64, 130) 125 (87, 178) 60 (43, 88) 233 (162, 335)
 A40–49 y, B50–74 y 80 (56, 114) 43 (31, 62) 137 (96, 195) 189 (132, 269) 95 (65, 134) 351 (244, 495)
Annual screening
 Ages 50–74 y 44 (31, 62) 25 (17, 35) 74 (52, 105) 104 (73, 149) 53 (37, 76) 187 (131, 267)
 Ages 45–74 y 73 (51, 103) 40 (28, 57) 122 (85, 174) 173 (121, 245) 88 (62, 126) 315 (221, 445)
 Ages 40–74 y 113 (79, 161) 63 (44, 89) 189 (133, 268) 266 (186, 380) 136 (95, 193) 487 (339, 700)

Lifetime Attributable Risk of Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer Death (Per 100,000 Women)

Biennial screening
 Ages 50–74 y 4 (3, 6) 2 (1, 3) 7 (5, 10) 10 (7, 14) 5 (3, 7) 18 (13, 26)
 Ages 45–74 y 7 (5, 10) 4 (3, 5) 12 (9, 17) 16 (11, 23) 8 (5, 11) 31 (22, 44)
 Ages 40–74 y 11 (7, 15) 6 (4, 8) 19 (13, 26) 25 (17, 35) 12 (8, 17) 46 (33, 67)
Hybrid strategy
 A45–49 y, B50–74 y 9 (6, 13) 5 (3, 7) 16 (11, 22) 21 (15, 31) 10 (7, 15) 40 (28, 57)
 A40–49 y, B50–74 y 14 (10, 20) 8 (5, 11) 24 (17, 34) 33 (23, 47) 16 (11, 23) 61 (42, 86)
Annual screening
 Ages 50–74 y 6 (4, 9) 3 (2, 5) 10 (7, 14) 14 (10, 20) 7 (5, 10) 25 (18, 36)
 Ages 45–74 y 10 (7, 14) 5 (4, 8) 16 (11, 23) 23 (16, 33) 12 (8, 17) 42 (29, 59)
 Ages 40–74 y 15 (10, 21) 8 (6, 12) 25 (17, 35) 35 (24, 50) 18 (12, 25) 63 (44, 91)

CI, confidence interval; y, years; A, annual screening at ages 40–50 or 45–50 and B, biennial screening at 50–74 years.