Table V. True seroprevalence (TP) estimates of brucellosis in nine Rayons of Kyrgyzstan for humans, cattle, sheep and goats in 2006.
| Species | Population size estimate | Sample size for ‘standard’ test (a) | Positive cases by ‘standard’ test (a) | TP by Bayesian model; median (95% Cr. Int.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At-Bashy | ||||
| Humans | 52,806 | 206 | 41 | 0.13 (0.07–0.21) |
| Cattle | 26,990 | 200 | 5 | 0.02 (0–0.07) |
| Sheep | 123,280 | 200 | 21 | 0.22 (0.12–0.39) |
| Goats | 20,550 | 200 | 40 | 0.31 (0.20–0.51) |
| Naryn | ||||
| Humans | 42,427 | 181 | 35 | 0.13 (0.06–0.21) |
| Cattle | 25,490 | 20 | 2 | 0.08 (0–0.28) |
| Sheep | 92,185 | 181 | 32 | 0.36 (0.22–0.60) |
| Goats | 15,370 | 181 | 32 | 0.27 (0.16–0.46) |
| Kochkor | ||||
| Humans | 55,978 | 177 | 61 | 0.30 (0.21–0.39) |
| Cattle | 27,004 | 220 | 4 | 0.01 (0–0.05) |
| Sheep | 155,080 | ND | ND | ND |
| Goats | 25,850 | ND | ND | ND |
| Jaiyl | ||||
| Humans | 52,395 | 197 | 17 | 0 (0–0.07) |
| Cattle | 22,747 | 142 | 14 | 0.13 (0.06–0.25) |
| Sheep | 50,430 | 180 | 21 | 0.24 (0.14–0.43) |
| Goats | 8,400 | 201 | 22 | 0.16 (0.07–0.30) |
| Sokuluk | ||||
| Humans | 126,718 | 206 | 37 | 0.11 (0.05–0.18) |
| Cattle | 42,936 | 199 | 6 | 0.03 (0–0.09) |
| Sheep | 74,400 | 211 | 4 | 0.03 (0–0.11) |
| Goats | 12,400 | 190 | 5 | 0 (0–0.05) |
| Yssyk-Ata | ||||
| Humans | 104,285 | 203 | 27 | 0.06 (0–0.13) |
| Cattle | 40,109 | 201 | 3 | 0.01 (0–0.05) |
| Sheep | 49,650 | 219 | 0 | 0 (0–0.01) |
| Goats | 8,280 | 85 | 0 | 0 (0–0.05) |
| Karakulga | ||||
| Humans | 87,077 | 200 | 39 | 0.13 (0.06–0.20) |
| Cattle | 24,504 | 199 | 0 | 0 (0–0.02) |
| Sheep | 86,980 | 200 | 0 | 0 (0–0.02) |
| Goats | 14,500 | 200 | 0 | 0 (0–0.02) |
| Uzgen | ||||
| Humans | 166,727 | 202 | 0 | 0 (0–0.01) |
| Cattle | 45,354 | 179 | 0 | 0 (0–0.02) |
| Sheep | 11,080 | 376 | 0 | 0 (0–0.01) |
| Goats | 1,850 | 25 | 1 | 0.04 (0–0.30) |
| Karasuu | ||||
| Humans | 299,325 | 202 | 16 | 0 (0–0.06) |
| Cattle | 72,072 | 200 | 0 | 0 (0–0.02) |
| Sheep | 173,055 | 286 | 0 | 0 (0–0.01) |
| Goats | 28,840 | ND | ND | ND |
| Total/overall seroprevalence | ||||
| Humans | 987,738 | 1,774 | 273 | 0.07 (0.04–0.09) |
| Cattle | 327,206 | 1,560 | 34 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) |
| Sheep | 971,220 | 1,853 | 78 | 0.12 (0.07–0.23) |
| Goats | 136,040 | 1,082 | 100 | 0.15 (0.07–0.30) |
(a)
Huddleson for humans, Rose Bengal test (Ukraine) for cattle, sheep and goats; sample size over all Rayons presented in Table I
Cr. Int.: credibility interval
ND: not determined
TP: true prevalence