TABLE 3—

Potential Impact of a Hypothetical $15 Minimum Wage on the Proportions of Low-Income Population and Predicted Crude Death Rates by the Proportion of Low-Income Residents: American Community Survey and Vital Statistics Data, New York City, New York Community Districts, 2008–2012

		Proportion With Low Income With $15 Minimum Wage, %				Premature Death Rate With $15 Minimum Wage, per 100 000
Proportion of Low-Income Population in Community Districts	Proportion With Low Income if No Change in Minimum Wage, %	Scenario 1a	Scenario 2	Scenario 3	Premature Death Rate if No Change in Minimum Wage, per 100 000	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3
< 20%	17.3	15.7	15.3	16.5	145.4	140.6	139.6	143.2
20%–34%	30.0	26.6	25.9	28.1	169.7	159.5	157.7	164.0
35%–49%	43.1	38.1	37.2	40.1	209.1	194.4	191.9	200.3
≥ 50%	61.5	55.1	54.3	57.6	253.8	235.2	232.6	242.3
All New York Cityb	39.7	35.2	34.4	37.1	200.3	187.4	185.3	192.7

Note. We defined low income as family income < 200% of the federal poverty level according to the US Department of Health and Human Services.

^aScenario 1 assumes that a higher minimum wage would create neither spillover nor employment effects. Scenario 2 assumes that a higher minimum wage would result in spillover effects but no employment effects. Scenario 3 assumes that a higher minimum wage would result in no spillover effects and a 15% reduction in employment for non–self-employed workers earning between $7.15 and $15.00 per hour.

^bWe derived the proportions of low-income population for New York City in all scenarios using respondent-level data from the American Community Survey; we calculated the premature death rates for New York City in all scenarios as the averages of community district premature death rates.