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. 2016 May 26;16:231. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1536-9

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© Tebbens et al. 2016

Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Fig. 3 — Analysis II results showing the relationship between net reproduction number (R_n) at the time of the switch and time until OPV2-related viruses in different reversion stages can establish circulation (i.e., time until R_n becomes greater than 1) in a hypothetical population (see Table 1) The shaded areas show the duration of indigenous circulation of OPV2-related viruses following the switch, which continues indefinitely if cVDPV2s emerge indigenously in the absence of an outbreak response. a Baseline R₀ for WPV1 equals 13. b Baseline R₀ for WPV1 equals 10