Figure 1.

A multi-state competing risk model for influenza infections and IHD mortality or morbidity incidence. Individuals enter the model after being exposed to cold temperatures. First, individuals follow one of transition pathways 1 to 3. Those who followed Transition 2 and entered the state of influenza infections take one of Transitions 4 to 6. The primary IHD occurs when individuals take Transition 3 directly after cold exposure, whereas the secondary IHD occurs if individuals go through Transitions 2 and 6.