FIG. 2.
Value of evidence and probabilities of observing n cases during a non-outbreak (Base) and an outbreak (Out) situation. Base, distribution of cases distribution into the baseline; Out, distribution of cases related to a WNV outbreak; Tot, distribution of cases during an outbreak (Base+Out); Log(V) = log10(P(n|outbreak)/P(n|baseline)). Out was estimated with fitdistr function of the package {fitdistrplus} and was based for NervSy on NB (mu = 3.12, theta = 1.150), for DeadHorse on NB (mu = 3, theta = 2.005), and for DeadBird on NB (mean = 2.23, theta = 3.34). NB, negative binomial; WNV, West Nile virus. Color images available online at www.liebertpub.com/vbz