Table 3.
HRs (95% CI) for prediction of type 2 diabetes with respect to FPG change quartiles; Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) (2001–2010)
| Quartile of interest | 1 (lowest) | 2 | 3 | 4 (highest) | p trend | Harrell's C | AIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPG change, mmol/L* | <−0.29 | −0.29–0.06 | 0.07–0.39 | ≥0.40 | – | – | – |
| Diabetes cases | 64 | 71 | 57 | 96 | – | – | – |
| Person-years | 9335 | 9981 | 9162 | 8253 | – | – | – |
| Incidence (per 1000 person-year) | 6.85 | 7.11 | 6.22 | 11.63 | – | – | – |
| Model I | 1.00 | 1.08 (0.77 to 1.52) | 0.96 (0.67 to 1.37) | 1.71 (1.24 to 2.33) | 0.001 | 0.65 | 3700.65 |
| Model II | 1.00 | 1.11 (0.79 to 1.56) | 0.98 (0.68 to 1.40) | 1.65 (1.2 to 2.27) | 0.004 | 0.72 | 3636.42 |
| Model III | 1.00 | 1.06 (0.76 to 1.5) | 0.9 (0.63 to 1.29) | 1.43 (1.03 to 1.98) | 0.06 | 0.73 | 3619.2 |
Significant values (p<0.05) are shown in bold typeface. Model I: FPG change categories (crude model). Model II: model I+baseline measurements of current smoking, family history of diabetes, education, BMI, WC, TG/HDL-C ratio and its change, TC/HDL-C ratio and its change, lipid drug and hypertension change categories. Model III: model II+2-hPCG change.
We defined the hypertension change category based on the first (1999–2001) and second (2002–2005) examination (yes/yes, yes/no, no/yes and no/no). AIC, Akaike information criterion.
*1st quartile (<−0.29 mmol/L); 2nd quartile (−0.29–0.06 mmol/L); 3rd quartile (0.07–0.39 mmol/L); 4th quartile (≥0.4 mmol/L); multivariate Cox analyses were conducted using age as timescale.
2-hPCG, 2 h post-challenge plasma glucose, mmol/L; BMI, body mass index; FPG, fasting plasma glucose, mmol/L; HDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; TC, total cholesterol; TG, triglycerides; WC, waist circumference.