Table 1.
Kaplan-Meier 2-year incident fracture rate estimates by baseline characteristics and co-morbidities (n=52,960), unadjusted and adjusted for age.
| 2-year fracture rate (%) |
Unadjusted HR (95% CI) for incident fracture |
P value |
Age-adjusted HR (95% CI) for incident fracture |
P value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | <0.001 | ||||
| 55–64 years | 5.2 | Referent | - | - | |
| 65–74 years | 6.2 | 1.2 (1.1–1.3) | - | - | |
| 75–84 years | 8.8 | 1.8 (1.6–1.9) | - | - | |
| ≥85 years | 11.6 | 2.3 (2.0–2.7) | - | - | |
| BMI | 0.26 | 0.59 | |||
| <18.5 kg/m2 | 7.5 | Referent | |||
| 18.5–24.9 kg/m2 | 6.7 | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | 1.0 (0.7–1.3) | ||
| 25–29.9 kg/m2 | 6.5 | 0.9 (0.7–1.1) | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | ||
| ≥30 kg/m2 | 6.1 | 0.8 (0.6–1.1) | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | ||
| Prior fracture | 11.6 | 2.4 (2.3–2.6) | <0.001 | 2.2 (2.1–2.4) | <0.001 |
| Current smoking | 7.1 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) | 0.11 | 1.2 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 |
| Alcohol intake ≥21 units/week |
9.3 | 1.5 (1.0–2.3) | 0.05 | 1.7 (1.1–2.5) | 0.01 |
| Fair/poor general health | 9.3 | 1.7 (1.5–1.8) | <0.001 | 1.6 (1.5–1.7) | <0.001 |
| Fallen in the last year | 8.7 | 1.7 (1.6–1.9) | <0.001 | 1.7 (1.6–1.8) | <0.001 |
| Highest education level | 6.2 | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | 0.11 | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.76 |
| Self-reported osteoporosis | 10.4 | 2.0 (1.8–2.1) | <0.001 | 1.8 (1.7–2.0) | <0.001 |
| Hypertension | 6.8 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) | 0.004 | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.91 |
| Heart disease | 8.7 | 1.5 (1.3–1.6) | <0.001 | 1.3 (1.2–1.4) | <0.001 |
| High cholesterol | 6.7 | 1.1 (1.0–1.1) | 0.16 | 1.0 (1.0–1.1) | 0.43 |
| Asthma | 7.8 | 1.2 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 | 1.3 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 |
| COPD | 9.4 | 1.6 (1.4–1.7) | <0.001 | 1.5 (1.3–1.7) | <0.001 |
| Osteoarthritis | 7.7 | 1.4 (1.3–1.5) | <.001 | 1.3 (1.2–1.4) | <.001 |
| Age | <0.001 | ||||
| 55–64 years | 5.2 | Referent | - | - | |
| 65–74 years | 6.2 | 1.2 (1.1–1.3) | - | - | |
| 75–84 years | 8.8 | 1.8 (1.6–1.9) | - | - | |
| ≥85 years | 11.6 | 2.3 (2.0–2.7) | - | - | |
| BMI | 0.26 | 0.59 | |||
| <18.5 kg/m2 | 7.5 | Referent | |||
| 18.5–24.9 kg/m2 | 6.7 | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | 1.0 (0.7–1.3) | ||
| 25–29.9 kg/m2 | 6.5 | 0.9 (0.7–1.1) | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | ||
| ≥30 kg/m2 | 6.1 | 0.8 (0.6–1.1) | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | ||
| Prior fracture | 11.6 | 2.4 (2.3–2.6) | <0.001 | 2.2 (2.1–2.4) | <0.001 |
| Current smoking | 7.1 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) | 0.11 | 1.2 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 |
| Alcohol intake ≥21 units/week |
9.3 | 1.5 (1.0–2.3) | 0.05 | 1.7 (1.1–2.5) | 0.01 |
| Fair/poor general health | 9.3 | 1.7 (1.5–1.8) | <0.001 | 1.6 (1.5–1.7) | <0.001 |
| Fallen in the last year | 8.7 | 1.7 (1.6–1.9) | <0.001 | 1.7 (1.6–1.8) | <0.001 |
| Highest education level | 6.2 | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | 0.11 | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.76 |
| Self-reported osteoporosis | 10.4 | 2.0 (1.8–2.1) | <0.001 | 1.8 (1.7–2.0) | <0.001 |
| Hypertension | 6.8 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) | 0.004 | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.91 |
| Heart disease | 8.7 | 1.5 (1.3–1.6) | <0.001 | 1.3 (1.2–1.4) | <0.001 |
| High cholesterol | 6.7 | 1.1 (1.0–1.1) | 0.16 | 1.0 (1.0–1.1) | 0.43 |
| Asthma | 7.8 | 1.2 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 | 1.3 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 |
| COPD | 9.4 | 1.6 (1.4–1.7) | <0.001 | 1.5 (1.3–1.7) | <0.001 |
| Osteoarthritis | 7.7 | 1.4 (1.3–1.5) | <.001 | 1.3 (1.2–1.4) | <.001 |
| Rheumatoid arthritis | 10.4 | 1.7 (1.2–2.3) | 0.002 | 1.6 (1.2–2.2) | 0.003 |
| Stroke | 9.1 | 1.4 (1.2–1.7) | <0.001 | 1.2 (1.1–1.5) | 0.009 |
| Inflammatory bowel | 9.0 | 1.4 (1.2–1.8) | 0.001 | 1.4 (1.1–1.7) | 0.002 |
| Age | <0.001 | ||||
| 55–64 years | 5.2 | Referent | - | - | |
| 65–74 years | 6.2 | 1.2 (1.1–1.3) | - | - | |
| 75–84 years | 8.8 | 1.8 (1.6–1.9) | - | - | |
| ≥85 years | 11.6 | 2.3 (2.0–2.7) | - | - | |
| BMI | 0.26 | 0.59 | |||
| <18.5 kg/m2 | 7.5 | Referent | |||
| 18.5–24.9 kg/m2 | 6.7 | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | 1.0 (0.7–1.3) | ||
| 25–29.9 kg/m2 | 6.5 | 0.9 (0.7–1.1) | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | ||
| ≥30 kg/m2 | 6.1 | 0.8 (0.6–1.1) | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | ||
| Prior fracture | 11.6 | 2.4 (2.3–2.6) | <0.001 | 2.2 (2.1–2.4) | <0.001 |
| Current smoking | 7.1 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) | 0.11 | 1.2 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 |
| Alcohol intake ≥21 units/week |
9.3 | 1.5 (1.0–2.3) | 0.05 | 1.7 (1.1–2.5) | 0.01 |
| Fair/poor general health | 9.3 | 1.7 (1.5–1.8) | <0.001 | 1.6 (1.5–1.7) | <0.001 |
| Fallen in the last year | 8.7 | 1.7 (1.6–1.9) | <0.001 | 1.7 (1.6–1.8) | <0.001 |
| Highest education level | 6.2 | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | 0.11 | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.76 |
| Self-reported osteoporosis | 10.4 | 2.0 (1.8–2.1) | <0.001 | 1.8 (1.7–2.0) | <0.001 |
| Hypertension | 6.8 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) | 0.004 | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.91 |
| Heart disease | 8.7 | 1.5 (1.3–1.6) | <0.001 | 1.3 (1.2–1.4) | <0.001 |
| High cholesterol | 6.7 | 1.1 (1.0–1.1) | 0.16 | 1.0 (1.0–1.1) | 0.43 |
| Asthma | 7.8 | 1.2 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 | 1.3 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 |
| COPD | 9.4 | 1.6 (1.4–1.7) | <0.001 | 1.5 (1.3–1.7) | <0.001 |
| Osteoarthritis disease |
7.7 | 1.4 (1.3–1.5) | <.001 | 1.3 (1.2–1.4) | <.001 |
| Celiac disease | 8.9 | 1.4 (1.0–2.0) | 0.08 | 1.4 (1.0–2.0) | 0.08 |
| Parkinson’s disease | 16.0 | 2.6 (1.9–3.6) | <0.001 | 2.2 (1.6–3.1) | <0.001 |
| Age | <0.001 | ||||
| 55–64 years | 5.2 | Referent | - | - | |
| 65–74 years | 6.2 | 1.2 (1.1–1.3) | - | - | |
| 75–84 years | 8.8 | 1.8 (1.6–1.9) | - | - | |
| ≥85 years | 11.6 | 2.3 (2.0–2.7) | - | - | |
| BMI | 0.26 | 0.59 | |||
| <18.5 kg/m2 | 7.5 | Referent | |||
| 18.5–24.9 kg/m2 | 6.7 | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | 1.0 (0.7–1.3) | ||
| 25–29.9 kg/m2 | 6.5 | 0.9 (0.7–1.1) | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | ||
| ≥30 kg/m2 | 6.1 | 0.8 (0.6–1.1) | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | ||
| Prior fracture | 11.6 | 2.4 (2.3–2.6) | <0.001 | 2.2 (2.1–2.4) | <0.001 |
| Current smoking | 7.1 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) | 0.11 | 1.2 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 |
| Alcohol intake ≥21 units/week |
9.3 | 1.5 (1.0–2.3) | 0.05 | 1.7 (1.1–2.5) | 0.01 |
| Fair/poor general health | 9.3 | 1.7 (1.5–1.8) | <0.001 | 1.6 (1.5–1.7) | <0.001 |
| Fallen in the last year | 8.7 | 1.7 (1.6–1.9) | <0.001 | 1.7 (1.6–1.8) | <0.001 |
| Highest education level | 6.2 | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | 0.11 | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.76 |
| Self-reported osteoporosis | 10.4 | 2.0 (1.8–2.1) | <0.001 | 1.8 (1.7–2.0) | <0.001 |
| Hypertension | 6.8 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) | 0.004 | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.91 |
| Heart disease | 8.7 | 1.5 (1.3–1.6) | <0.001 | 1.3 (1.2–1.4) | <0.001 |
| High cholesterol | 6.7 | 1.1 (1.0–1.1) | 0.16 | 1.0 (1.0–1.1) | 0.43 |
| Asthma | 7.8 | 1.2 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 | 1.3 (1.1–1.4) | <0.001 |
| COPD | 9.4 | 1.6 (1.4–1.7) | <0.001 | 1.5 (1.3–1.7) | <0.001 |
| Osteoarthritis | 7.7 | 1.4 (1.3–1.5) | <.001 | 1.3 (1.2–1.4) | <.001 |
| Multiple sclerosis | 12.0 | 1.9 (1.4–2.6) | <0.001 | 2.0 (1.5–2.8) | <0.001 |
| Cancer | 7.3 | 1.1 (1.0–1.3) | 0.01 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) | 0.18 |
| Diabetes (type 1) | 9.6 | 1.5 (1.3–1.8) | <0.001 | 1.4 (1.2–1.6) | <0.001 |
Abbreviations: BMI: body mass index; CI: confidence interval; COPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; HR: hazard ratio.