Table 2. Top model set (ΔAICc < 6) explaining variation in age at first successful reproduction across cohorts 1983–2003 among Greenland white-fronted geese.

After the nesting rule was applied (Richards, 2008), we retained four models (indicated by a ‘√’).

	BCIa	BY D NAOb	HY M NAOc	BY M NAOd	BCI*HY M NAO	BCI*BY M NAO	HY M NAO*BY M NAO	df	logLik	AICc	ΔAICc < 6	Re	Nagelkerkef
m1	+		+	+		+		5	−159.01	328.90	0.00	√	0.25
m2	+			+		+		4	−160.77	330.12	1.22	√	0.22
m3	+		+					3	−161.97	330.28	1.39	√	0.19
m4	+		+	+	+	+		6	−158.64	330.54	1.64
m5	+		+	+		+	+	6	−158.67	330.60	1.70
m6	+	+	+	+		+		6	−158.83	330.92	2.02
m7	+							2	−163.79	331.75	2.85	√	0.15
m8	+		+		+			4	−161.67	331.91	3.01
m9	+		+	+	+	+	+	7	−158.29	332.28	3.38
m10	+		+		+		+	5	−160.76	332.41	3.51
m11	+		+	+				4	−161.92	332.41	3.52
m12	+	+	+					4	−161.97	332.52	3.62
m13	+	+	+	+		+	+	7	−158.49	332.68	3.78
m14	+	+	+	+	+	+		7	−158.50	332.69	3.79
m15	+	+						3	−163.66	333.66	4.77
m16	+			+				3	−163.68	333.70	4.80
m17	+		+	+	+			5	−161.61	334.11	5.21
m18	+	+	+		+			5	−161.66	334.21	5.31
m19	+		+	+			+	5	−161.72	334.32	5.43
m20	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	8	−158.14	334.50	5.61
m21	+	+	+	+				5	−161.92	334.72	5.82

Notes.

^aBreeding conditions index (BCI).

^bDecember NAO prior to successful reproduction.

^cHatch year (HY) May NAO.

^dBreeding year (BY) May NAO.

^eRetained model after application of the nesting rule.

^fNagelkerke R² value.