Table 2. Model ID, explanatory variables, AICc values, Akaike weights, and deviance for linear mixed models describing the timing of arrival of polar bears on shore, 1986–2014.
| Model ID | Explanatory Variables | AICc | Akaike Wt. (wi) | Deviance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FD≤15%, Shelf>15%_wk | 671.4 | 0.87 | 667.3 |
| 8 | FD≤15%, Shelf>15%_wk, Mdis>15%_wk, year | 676.2 | 0.07 | 672.1 |
| 7 | FD≤15%, Shelf>15%_wk, Mdis>15%_wk | 677.5 | 0.04 | 673.4 |
| 17 | Year | 686.5 | 0.01 | 682.4 |
| 1 | FD≤15% | 686.8 | <0.00 | 682.7 |
| 9 | FD≤50% | 690.5 | <0.00 | 686.4 |
| 6 | Mdis>15%_wk, FD≤15% | 692.3 | <0.00 | 688.1 |
| 12 | FD≤50%, Shelf>50%_wk | 692.7 | <0.00 | 688.6 |
| 16 | FD≤50%, Shelf>50%_wk, Mdis>50%_wk, year | 692.6 | <0.00 | 688.5 |
| 14 | Mdis>50%_wk, FD≤50% | 697.4 | <0.00 | 693.3 |
| 10 | Shelf>50%_wk | 697.9 | <0.00 | 693.8 |
| 2 | Shelf>15%_wk | 699.8 | <0.00 | 695.7 |
| 15 | FD≤50%, Shelf>50%_wk, Mdis>50%_wk | 699.4 | <0.00 | 695.3 |
| 11 | Mdis>50%_wk | 701.2 | <0.00 | 697.0 |
| 3 | Mdis>15%_wk | 702.3 | <0.00 | 698.2 |
| 5 | Mdis>15%_wk, Shelf>15%_wk | 703.0 | <0.00 | 700.6 |
| 13 | Mdis>50%_wk, Shelf>50%_wk | 704.7 | <0.00 | 698.9 |