Table 4. Funding Modela Results for R01-Equivalent Applications, FY 2010–2013.
| Sub-Model A | Sub-Model B | Sub-Model C | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate (95% CI) | P Value | Estimate (95% CI) | P Value | Estimate (95% CI) | P Value | |
| Categories/Criteria/Characteristicsb | ||||||
| Research Criteria | ||||||
| Approach | 6.2 (5.9–6.5) | <0.001 | 6.0 (5.7–6.3) | <0.001 | - | - |
| Significance | 2.1 (2.0–2.2) | <0.001 | 2.2 (2.0–2.3) | <0.001 | - | - |
| Innovation | 1.5 (1.4–1.6) | <0.001 | 1.5 (1.5–1.6) | <0.001 | - | - |
| Investigator(s) | 1.0 (1.0–1.1) | 0.3 | 1.4 (1.3–1.5) | <0.001 | - | - |
| Environment | 0.9 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 | 0.8 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 | - | - |
| Approach X Significance | 1.2 (1.2–1.3) | <0.001 | 1.3 (1.2–1.4) | <0.001 | - | - |
| Application Type | ||||||
| New (Type 1) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Renewal (Type 2) | - | - | 1.4 (1.3–1.5) | <0.001 | 2.2 (2.1–2.3) | <0.001 |
| Revision (Type 3) | - | - | 1.7 (1.2–2.6) | <0.01 | 2.6 (2.0–3.4) | <0.001 |
| Change of Awarding IC Renewal (Type 9) | - | - | 1.7 (1.2–2.4) | <0.01 | 2.9 (2.3–3.7) | <0.001 |
| Application Submission Number | ||||||
| Initial Submission (A0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| First Resubmission (A1) | - | - | 2.2 (2.1–2.3) | <0.001 | 3.7 (3.6–3.8) | <0.001 |
| Second Resubmission (A2) | - | - | 2.8 (2.5–3.1) | <0.001 | 4.5 (4.2–4.8) | <0.001 |
| Career Stage of Investigators | ||||||
| Experienced | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Early Stage Investigator (ESI) | - | - | 2.6 (2.2–3.1) | <0.001 | 1.5 (1.4–1.7) | <0.001 |
| Non-ESI New Investigator | - | - | 1.7 (1.4–2.0) | <0.001 | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.56 |
| Multiple Principal Investigator (MPI) Status | ||||||
| Single PI Application | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MPI Application | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.2) | 0.91 | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.64 |
| Human and/or Animal Subject Involvement | ||||||
| No Human or Animal Subjects | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Animal Subjects Only | - | - | 1.0 (1.0–1.1) | 0.43 | 1.0 (0.9–1.0) | 0.52 |
| Human Subjects Only | - | - | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | <0.05 | 0.8 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 |
| Human and Animal Subjects | - | - | 1.0 (0.8–1.1) | 0.39 | 0.9 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 |
| NIH Research Grant Funding Rank of Institution | ||||||
| Rank 1–30 | - | - | - | - | ||
| Rank 31–100 | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.0) | 0.33 | 0.8 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 |
| Rank 101–200 | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.9 | 0.7 (0.7–0.8) | <0.001 |
| Rank > 200 | - | - | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | <0.05 | 0.6 (0.5–0.6) | <0.001 |
| No Previous NIH Funding | - | - | 1.0 (0.7–1.5) | 0.81 | 0.4 (0.3–0.6) | <0.001 |
| Institution Type | ||||||
| Medical School | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Higher Education (excl. Medical) | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.0) | 0.14 | 1.0 (1.0–1.0) | 0.85 |
| Independent Hospital | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.2) | 0.38 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) | <0.05 |
| Research Institute | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.59 | 1.2 (1.1–1.2) | <0.001 |
| Other Institution | - | - | 0.9 (0.8–1.1) | 0.47 | 1.1 (1.0–1.3) | <0.05 |
| Race | ||||||
| White | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Asian | - | - | 0.9 (0.9–1.0) | 0.1 | 0.9 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 |
| Black | - | - | 1.0 (0.7–1.2) | 0.73 | 0.7 (0.6–0.8) | <0.001 |
| Other Races | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.95 | 0.9 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 |
| Unknown | - | - | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | 0.07 | 0.8 (0.7–0.9) | <0.001 |
| Withheld | - | - | 0.9 (0.7–1.0) | 0.09 | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | <0.05 |
| Ethnicity | ||||||
| Non-Hispanic | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Hispanic | - | - | 1.0 (0.8–1.1) | 0.74 | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | <0.05 |
| MPI Multiple Ethnicities | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.79 | 1.0 (0.9–1.0) | 0.31 |
| Unknown | - | - | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | <0.01 | 0.8 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 |
| Withheld | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.2) | 0.78 | 1.1 (0.9–1.2) | 0.33 |
| Gender | ||||||
| Male | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Female | - | - | 1.0 (1.0–1.1) | 0.22 | 0.9 (0.9–0.9) | <0.001 |
| MPI Multiple Genders | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.2) | 0.77 | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.46 |
| Unknown | - | - | 1.3 (0.8–2.2) | 0.33 | 1.2 (0.8–1.7) | 0.33 |
| Withheld | - | - | 0.8 (0.6–1.1) | 0.22 | 0.9 (0.7–1.1) | 0.26 |
| Degree | ||||||
| PhD | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MD-PhD | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.74 | 1.0 (1.0–1.1) | 0.27 |
| MD | - | - | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 0.89 | 1.1 (1.0–1.1) | <0.05 |
| MPI Multiple Degree Types | - | - | 0.9 (0.8–1.1) | 0.36 | 1.0 (0.9–1.0) | 0.32 |
| Other | - | - | 0.5 (0.3–0.7) | <0.001 | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | <0.001 |
| Age Group (Years) | ||||||
| 24–35 | - | - | 0.8 (0.7–1.0) | <0.05 | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) | 0.18 |
| 36–45 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 46–55 | - | - | 0.9 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 | 0.9 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 |
| 56–65 | - | - | 0.9 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 | 0.9 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 |
| 65+ | - | - | 0.8 (0.7–0.9) | <0.001 | 0.7 (0.7–0.8) | <0.001 |
| MPI Multiple Age Groups | - | - | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | 0.08 | 0.8 (0.8–0.9) | <0.01 |
| Unknown | - | - | 0.8 (0.7–0.9) | <0.001 | 0.8 (0.7–0.8) | <0.001 |
| Fiscal Year of Application | ||||||
| 2010 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2011 | 0.5 (0.5–0.5) | <0.001 | 0.5 (0.5–0.5) | <0.001 | 0.9 (0.9–1.0) | <0.01 |
| 2012 | 0.3 (0.3–0.4) | <0.001 | 0.4 (0.3–0.4) | <0.001 | 1.0 (0.9–1.0) | <0.05 |
| 2013 | 0.3 (0.3–0.3) | <0.001 | 0.3 (0.3–0.3) | <0.001 | 0.9 (0.8–0.9) | <0.001 |
| Intercept | 0.1 (0.1–0.1) | <0.001 | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | <0.001 | 0.1 (0.1–0.1) | <0.001 |
| # of Applications | 111533 | - | 111533 | - | 111533 | - |
| Number of SRGsc | 318 | - | 318 | - | 318 | - |
| Log Likelihood | -25242 | - | -23283 | - | -48290 | - |
| Intraclass Correlation | 0.178 | - | 0.14 | - | 0.013 | - |
a Funding Model: (Odds Ratios) For ease of interpretation, the criterion score coefficients were inverted. Therefore, in contrast to the Impact Model, criterion score coefficients represent the estimated change in relative odds of funding due to a one point improvement (or decrease) in the criterion score, all else equal. Application characteristic coefficients represent the estimated difference in relative odds of funding for an application with the given characteristics compared to the baseline characteristic, all else equal.
b Other application and applicant characteristics controlled for, but not shown here due to space limitations, are: Council round of review, human or animal subject concerns, solicitation type (unsolicited, program announcement or request for application), locus of review (Center for Scientific Review v. other NIH Institutes and Centers), review group type (standing study section v. special emphasis panel), direct costs requested, # of years of support requested, the NIH administering Institute or Center (IC), the geographical region of the institution and the previous NIH funding history of the applicant.
c Scientific Review Groups (SRGs) include both standing study sections and special emphasis panels.